Are we giving BRT passengers what they want? User preference and market segmentation in Johannesburg

Abstract

The public transport systems being implemented under the DOT?s Integrated Public Transport Network (IPTN) programme generally have lower passenger demand, poorer financial performance and higher subsidy requirements than initially hoped. One cause of poor passenger attraction may be that IPTN systems do not offer sufficiently attractive services, given the other alternatives available to potential passengers. This paper examines the value proposition of IPTN systems against the stated needs and preferences of passengers, drawing on a recent combined revealed and stated preference survey of 1,200 people in the City of Johannesburg. Added validity and realism is obtained by studying actual (as opposed to hypothetical) choice behaviour in the existing BRT system. The analysis identifies distinct market segments with clearly different needs. About a quarter of current car users are persistent car captives, and opposed to using a good BRT option. Choice passengers have a very limited willingness to pay for the travel time savings procured with dedicated trunk lanes, but place much higher value on good access, higher frequencies, and, above all, the overall service quality of BRT. This suggests that future IPTN networks will maximise ridership by prioritising affordability, good network coverage, customer service, and perhaps differentiated price-service combinations ? all elements that might require a shift away from the current infrastructure-heavy paradigm.