Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected global day-to-day movement patterns.
Travel demand was markedly reduced worldwide as a result of governmental directives to
reduce the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The South African government implemented
a stepwise lockdown approach according to five Alert Levels, which have guided
movement, social gatherings, and economic activities throughout the pandemic. Variation
in traffic congestion levels was obvious on urban roads in South African cities, linked to
changing Alert Levels. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the pandemic has
impacted urban, road-based movement patterns, and to evaluate if mobility trends are
tending towards a “new normal” or returning to pre-pandemic patterns. It is important,
particularly for planning authorities, to understand the long-term impacts of the pandemic
to know if the observed changes to congestion and trip distribution patterns will be
ongoing, or if we can anticipate a general return to pre-pandemic movement patterns. A
case study analysis of traffic movement patterns in Cape Town is conducted using traffic
volume and commercial floating car data (FCD) to evaluate variation in congestion and trip
distribution patterns throughout 2020 and 2021. Analysis revealed the severe impact that
lockdown had on traffic and movement patterns. Furthermore, the study determined that
while 2021 traffic volume and congestion remained somewhat lower than 2019 levels, trip
distribution patterns had returned to a pre-lockdown profile by the end of 2021. This is the
first detailed South African study of pandemic related urban movement pattern changes
using FCD, also offering a case study into how commercial FCD behaves in Sub-Saharan
Africa when evaluating the traffic impact of a significant event.
