The impact of the covid-19 pandemic on urban movement: using floating car data to analyse road-based traffic patterns

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected global day-to-day movement patterns. Travel demand was markedly reduced worldwide as a result of governmental directives to reduce the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The South African government implemented a stepwise lockdown approach according to five Alert Levels, which have guided movement, social gatherings, and economic activities throughout the pandemic. Variation in traffic congestion levels was obvious on urban roads in South African cities, linked to changing Alert Levels. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the pandemic has impacted urban, road-based movement patterns, and to evaluate if mobility trends are tending towards a “new normal” or returning to pre-pandemic patterns. It is important, particularly for planning authorities, to understand the long-term impacts of the pandemic to know if the observed changes to congestion and trip distribution patterns will be ongoing, or if we can anticipate a general return to pre-pandemic movement patterns. A case study analysis of traffic movement patterns in Cape Town is conducted using traffic volume and commercial floating car data (FCD) to evaluate variation in congestion and trip distribution patterns throughout 2020 and 2021. Analysis revealed the severe impact that lockdown had on traffic and movement patterns. Furthermore, the study determined that while 2021 traffic volume and congestion remained somewhat lower than 2019 levels, trip distribution patterns had returned to a pre-lockdown profile by the end of 2021. This is the first detailed South African study of pandemic related urban movement pattern changes using FCD, also offering a case study into how commercial FCD behaves in Sub-Saharan Africa when evaluating the traffic impact of a significant event.