Precipitation from persistent extremes is increasing in most regions and globally

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Authors

Du, Haibo
Alexander, Lisa V.
Donat, Markus G.
Lippmann, Tanya
Srivastava, Arvind
Salinger, Jim
Kruger, Andries C.
Choi, Gwangyong
He, Hong S.
Fujibe, Fumiaki

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Wiley

Abstract

Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual‐maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0‐45°N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments.

Description

Data Set names: the CMIP5 data set (http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/), the GHCND data set (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ ghcn‐daily‐description), the ECA&D data set (https://www.ecad.eu/), the USHCN data set (http://cdiac.ess‐dive. lbl.gov/ftp/ushcn_daily/), and the data set for Canada (http://climate.weather. gc.ca/). Observed data set is available online (https://doi.org/10.5281/ zenodo.2573295).

Keywords

Precipitation, Fixed duration, Extreme persistent, Southern Hemisphere

Sustainable Development Goals

Citation

Du, H., Alexander, L. V., Donat, M. G., Lippmann, T., Srivastava, A., Salinger, J., et al. (2019). Precipitation frompersistent extremes is increasing in most regions and globally. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 6041–6049. https://DOI.org/ 10.1029/2019GL081898.