Precipitation from persistent extremes is increasing in most regions and globally
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Date
Authors
Du, Haibo
Alexander, Lisa V.
Donat, Markus G.
Lippmann, Tanya
Srivastava, Arvind
Salinger, Jim
Kruger, Andries C.
Choi, Gwangyong
He, Hong S.
Fujibe, Fumiaki
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Wiley
Abstract
Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually
been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by
complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account
for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual‐maximum precipitation is
significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed
and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes,
especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0‐45°N latitude band. Climate models also show
significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and
persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more
complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken
into account for future climate change assessments.
Description
Data Set names: the CMIP5 data set
(http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/), the GHCND
data set (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
ghcn‐daily‐description), the ECA&D
data set (https://www.ecad.eu/), the
USHCN data set (http://cdiac.ess‐dive.
lbl.gov/ftp/ushcn_daily/), and the data
set for Canada (http://climate.weather.
gc.ca/). Observed data set is available
online (https://doi.org/10.5281/
zenodo.2573295).
Keywords
Precipitation, Fixed duration, Extreme persistent, Southern Hemisphere
Sustainable Development Goals
Citation
Du, H., Alexander, L. V., Donat, M. G.,
Lippmann, T., Srivastava, A., Salinger, J.,
et al. (2019). Precipitation frompersistent
extremes is increasing in most regions
and globally. Geophysical Research
Letters, 46, 6041–6049. https://DOI.org/
10.1029/2019GL081898.