Abstract:
We argue that escape foreign direct investment (FDI) happens when unknown future “rules of the game” cause concern about the continued productive capacity of the economy. Adapting the stress-strain-fail model of materials failure, we argue that escape FDI is a process with three cumulative phases. Conditions for escape FDI (stress) are created by institutional deterioration and contained contestation. Limited escape FDI (strain) results from periods of societal instability and/or inadequate institutional reforms. Extensive escape FDI (failure) results from pervasive societal instability and/or fundamental changes in institutions. Using a historical approach, we develop these propositions for South Africa, 1956 to 2012.
