Research Articles (University of Pretoria)

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Despite potential risks African elephants do not always avoid mountaineering
Teixeira, Justine M.; Van der Westhuizen, Rickert; Shrader, A.M. (Adrian) (Wiley, 2025-07)
As herbivores forage, they move across a wide range of topographical features. Yet, they tend to avoid terrain such as steep slopes where energetic costs of movement are high and there is a greater risk of falls and tumbles. Recent studies suggest that African elephants (Loxodonta africana) avoid steep slopes (e.g., > 15°). However, in reserves with undulating topography, elephants may have to use steep slopes to obtain food, especially when availability is limited in more gradual areas. To explore this, we investigated slope use by elephants in the Ithala Game Reserve, South Africa, where the topography varies greatly and ranges between 400 to 1400 masl. Using 8.5 years of positional data, we examined how slope use varied between herd types (14 breeding herds and 13 males), habitat type and season (wet vs. dry). Elephants were found primarily on slopes < 30° (i.e., 95% of the locations), while 67% of the locations were on slopes < 15°, and 52% on slopes < 10°. Breeding herds used steeper slopes (mean = 12.6° ± 0.08 SE) than bulls (mean = 12.0° ± 0.8 SE). In addition, habitat influenced slope use, with the steepest slopes used in woodlands and the most gradual used in built-up areas and grasslands. However, these slope use differences were very small (i.e., 0.6° to 9.7°) and thus unlikely to be biologically meaningful. Rather, the ability to detect these slight differences was likely an artefact of our large sample size (N = 23,837 locations). Moreover, slope use did not vary between the wet and dry seasons. Nevertheless, 5% of all the elephant locations occurred on very steep slopes (i.e., > 30°) and 33% were on slopes > 15°, indicating that although they may prefer flat terrain, when required, elephants will mountaineer.
Stretching out : leopard home-range expansion in response to suppressed population density in a recovering post-war landscape
Briers-Louw, Willem D.; Kendon, Tamar A.; Hayes, Andres; Gaynor, David; Naude, Vincent (Wiley, 2025-10)
Large carnivores have profound regulatory effects on ecosystems and provide substantial socio‐economic benefits. However, mounting anthropogenic pressures are driving their global decline, threatening many species with extinction. Leopards, in particular, face challenges due to their wide‐ranging behavior, which exposes them to conflict with people and bycatch snaring, highlighting the importance of understanding their spatial ecology to develop more effective conservation strategies. This study aimed to estimate the home‐range size of female leopards (n = 4) within the Zambezi Delta, a unique mesic landscape undergoing broad‐scale ecological recovery in central Mozambique. Home‐range sizes ranged from 46 to 365 km2, falling within the range of global estimates. Surprisingly, these home‐range sizes, along with additional parameter estimates such as daily distance moved and home‐range overlap, were most comparable with those reported in arid environments. With female leopards appearing to occupy larger areas than theoretically required based on energetic needs, it is plausible that their spatial ecology is likely influenced by low population density. As the population recovers, we anticipate a re‐structuring of socio‐spatial dynamics driven by dispersal‐regulated processes, with females likely contracting their home‐range and partitioning them to their philopatric daughters. This study provides the first robust estimation of leopard home ranges in Mozambique and provides critical insights into the spatial ecology of leopards in a post‐war landscape. We recommend long‐term monitoring to track changes in population demographics and socio‐spatial dynamics as restoration efforts continue across central Mozambique.
Threatened endemic arthropods and vertebrates partition their diets with non-native ants in an isolated island ecosystem
Tercel, Maximillian P.T.G.; Cuff, Jordan P.; Symondson, William O.C.; Moorhouse-Gann, Rosemary J.; Bishop, Tom Rhys; Cole, Nik C.; Jolin, Eric; Govier, Bethan; Chambon, Johannes; Mootoocurpen, Rouben; Goder, Martine; Vaughan, Ian P. (Wiley, 2025-07)
The success of non-native species depends on their ability to find food, which may ultimately lead to competition with native species and contribute to biodiversity loss in invaded ecosystems. Understanding which food resources are consumed is therefore crucial for evaluating how non-native species mechanistically fit into native biological communities. Non-native species may be predators or competitors of native species or may be consumed by native species as a novel source of nutrition, for example, and this can occur between both closely and distantly related species. Studies examining competitive interactions between non-native species and distantly related native taxa are relatively rare, largely because it is difficult to compare their diets using traditional methods. However, dietary DNA metabarcoding overcomes these limitations by enabling the construction of highly detailed food webs. Here, we use dietary DNA metabarcoding between two generalist native consumers—a reptile (Telfair's skink) and a Scolopendra centipede (Serpent Island centipede)—and the hyperabundant non-native ant community to test which consumer groups prey upon one another and partition food resources. To determine how non-native ants fit into a native community, we calculated dietary composition, niche overlap, and dietary diversity of ants, centipedes, and skinks on Round Island, a small 2.19-km2 oceanic island located 22.5 km north-east of Mauritius. We observed distinct partitioning of food resources among the three consumer groups—skinks, centipedes, and ants—and found that the level of predation between these groups varied. Skinks and centipedes frequently consumed non-native ants, which may represent an important nutritional resource for both native consumers. Dietary differences persisted through seasons despite large shifts in the availability of food and concomitant diet composition for all three consumers. We conclude that non-native ants fit into the biological community of Round Island as both prey for native consumers and extreme omnivorous generalists, but not necessarily at the expense of the native consumers because it is unlikely the consumers are competing for food resources. Our results suggest that abundant non-native generalists, which are highly invasive in much of their introduced range, can infiltrate native food webs without exerting strong competitive forces on other common native generalist species.
Creating the vision of rapid, repeatable, reactive data workflows for policy on biodiversity
Groom, Quentin; Abraham, Laura; Adriaens, Tim; Breugelmans, Lissa; Clarke, David A.; Di Musciano, Michele; Dove, Shawn; Estupinan-Suarez, Lina M.; Faulkner, Katelyn T.; Fernandez, Miguel; Hendrickx, Louise A.; Hui, Cang; Joly, Alexis; Kumschick, Sabrina; Langeraert, Ward; Martini, Matilde; Miller, Joe; Oldoni, Damiano; Pereira, Henrique; Preda, Cristina; Robertson, Tim; Rocchini, Duccio; Rodrigues, Andrew; Ryckewaert, Maxime; Seebens, Hanno; Sica, Yanina V.; Teixeira, Heliana; Trekels, Maarten; Vandaele, Toon; Wilson, John R.U.; Zengeya, Tsungai; Desmet, Peter (Wiley, 2025-07)
1. Effective biodiversity management and policymaking requires timely access to accurate and reliable scientific data on biodiversity status, trends and threats. However, current biodiversity monitoring processes are often time-consuming, complex and irreproducible. Moreover, the quality and types of biodiversity data are diverse, which challenges their integration and impedes effective monitoring. A major step to overcome such challenges would be the availability of standardized species occurrence data. However, challenges arise in aggregating and integrating these heterogeneous data with environmental and landscape data. 2. By creating standardized biodiversity data cubes and automated workflows for post-processing, we envision that (1) information from complex datasets will be available in a known format to efficiently communicate biodiversity variables to policymakers; (2) the adoption of repeatable Open Data workflows will make biodiversity data more accessible, efficient and cost-effective; and (3) cloud computing will make it easier to analyse large datasets, benefit from a broader range of models, share resources and work together on biodiversity projects. 3. This revolution in biodiversity monitoring will rely on community collaboration. By bridging the gap between policymakers' needs, bioinformation specialists' skills and data collectors' motivations, biodiversity monitoring can become a more inclusive and community-driven effort. As such, we advocate for the development of tools and workflows in close consultation with stakeholders to enhance the impact and use of biodiversity information. 4. Practical implication. The proposed approach faces challenges in maintaining software, data standards and addressing biodiversity data complexity. However, leveraging existing infrastructures like GBIF and Copernicus, and building on the knowledge from GEO and GEO BON offers a feasible path.
Assessing Gonipterus defoliation levels using multispectral unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) data in Eucalyptus plantations
Nzuza, Phumlani; Schröder, Michelle L.; Heim, Rene J.; Daniels, Louis; Slippers, Bernard; Hurley, Brett Phillip; Germishuizen, IIaria; Sivparsad, Benice; Roux, Jolanda; Maes, Wouter H. (Elsevier, 2025-12)
Invasive insect pest Gonipterus sp. n. 2 (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) threatens Eucalyptus species, causing defoliation and yield loss through adult and larval feeding. Early detection is important for early intervention to prevent pest outbreaks. As conventional insect pest monitoring methods are time-consuming and spatially restrictive, this study assessed the potential of UAV monitoring. Multispectral imagery was obtained with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) across six different stands of young Eucalyptus dunnii with varying levels of Gonipterus sp. n. 2 infestations. Some stands were revisited, a total of 9 datasets were covered. Reference damage levels were obtained through visual assessments of (n = 89–100) trees at each site. Across sites, a decrease in canopy reflectance in both the visual and the near-infrared domains with increasing damage levels was consistently observed. Several vegetation indices showed consistent patterns, but none showed site independence. XGBoost, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest (RF) were used to predict damage levels using five input spectral data types. XGBoost performed best, closely followed by RF. Both models consistently selected very similar features. The best-performing models included reflectance, vegetation indices and grey-level co-occurrence matrix data. When data from 10 different wavelengths were used, the highest classification accuracy was 92 % across all sites in classifying defoliation levels. With a classical 5-band multispectral camera, accuracy was 88 %, but distinguishing medium damage from low remained challenging. However, the method was less reliable when trained and validated on separate fields. This study highlights the potential of multi-site datasets in increasing the model's generalization, using UAV based multispectral imagery to assess Gonipterus sp. n. 2 damage and demonstrating reliable upscaling from individual tree assessments to stand scale. However, it also recognises the difficulty of generating a robust model that performs well on untrained sites. HIGHLIGHTS • Canopy damage from Gonipterus sp. n. 2 was assessed across stands using UAV imagery, capturing defoliation, chlorophyll reduction. • The 5-band imagery perfomed comparable to the 10-band but was less effective at detecting subtle low vs no damage defoliation. • Similar pattern was observed across sites but absolute reflectance and vegetation indices are site specific.
The preference for energetic resources is positively associated with predatory activity in ants
Wilker, Icaro; Bishop, Tom Rhys; Lasmar, Chaim J.; Veiga, Dara; Souza, Leticia G.; Queiroz, Antonio C.M.; Feitosa, Rodrigo M.; Neundorf, Ana C.A.; Martins, Mila F.O.; Alves, Guilherme P.; Fontenele, Luane K.; Costa, Marilia M.S.; Ribas, Carla R. (Wiley, 2025-10)
1. Land use changes can alter resource availability and microclimate variables in tropical ecosystems, generally altering community structure by decreasing species richness and changing its composition. These changes affect foraging activity, nutrient preferences and consequently ecosystem functions. 2. Our aim was to assess how foraging activity and nutrient preference are influenced by changes in land use and microclimate. 3. We sampled ants (Formicidae) at 32 sites undergoing conversion from natural habitats to coffee systems in two Neotropical biomes: the Atlantic rainforest and the Cerrado. We assessed nutrient preference (amino acids, carbohydrates, lipids and sodium) and predation using mealworm larvae, while also measuring temperature and humidity. 4. We found the same ants foraged for different resources, likely because generalist species can perform these activities on the ground. Furthermore, foraging for energetic resources (carbohydrates and lipids) positively correlated with foraging for larvae. This indicates that the limitation of energetic resources can contribute to an increase in foraging and predatory activity. Moreover, ant preference for amino acids decreases with increasing temperature, indicating that ants prefer to consume energetic resources to support metabolic processes. 5. In conclusion, foraging is primarily carried out by generalist species. In addition, the preference for energetic nutrients, driven by energetic limitations, is linked to predatory activity. Moreover, ant species richness increases foraging for larvae, while rising temperatures decrease the preference for amino acids. Thus, conserving species richness and mitigating temperature increases may enhance larval foraging and support the insect predation function in Neotropical habitats.
Cervical cancer awareness among women recently diagnosed with cervical cancer in South Africa and Zimbabwe
Govender, Sudarshan; Phillips, Tamsin K.; Walter, Fiona M.; Day, Sarah; Guzha, Bothwell; Scott, Suzanne E.; Chirenje, Zvavahera M.; Ataguba, John Ele-Ojo; Mbatani, Nomonde; Fakie, Nazia; Moodley, Jennifer (ecancer , United Kingdom, 2025-10)
Incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer remain high in Southern Africa (SA). We explored awareness of cervical cancer symptoms and risk factors, as well as risk lay beliefs among women recently diagnosed with cervical cancer from SA and Zimbabwe. Patients were asked to complete a locally validated questionnaire with unprompted, open-ended questions to assess awareness of cervical cancer symptoms and risk factors. Among 501 women (SA 285, Zimbabwe 216), 46% (229) were able to recall one or more symptoms (SA 24%, Zimbabwe 76%) and 19% (93) were able to recall one or more risk factors of cervical cancer (SA 27%, Zimbabwe 73%). In SA, factors associated with increased symptom awareness included higher education level (completion of secondary education compared to not completing secondary education; adjusted odds ratios (aOR) 2.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17–6.43) as well as living in urban and peri-urban areas compared to living in rural areas (Urban: aOR 2.98, 95% CI 1.35–6.80; Peri-urban: aOR 3.28, 95% CI 1.13–9.35). Having a self-reported history of a chronic condition was associated with lower risk factor awareness compared to not having a self-reported chronic condition (aOR 0.07, 95% CI 0.00–0.42). In Zimbabwe, those who self-reported living with HIV were more likely to know one or more risk factors compared to those without HIV (aOR 2.69, 95% CI 1.31–5.67). Overall, 90 (18%) women mentioned at least one lay belief about risk factors for cervical cancer, with the most reported being inserting herbs, creams or objects into the vagina (9%, n = 43). The low levels of cervical cancer awareness in two Southern African countries highlight the urgent need to improve cervical cancer awareness, as low levels of awareness can impact timely cancer diagnosis and limit the uptake of cervical cancer prevention programs.
Conserving carbon stocks under climate change : importance of trees outside forests in agricultural landscapes of Mongala Province, Democratic Republic of Congo
Azenge, Jean Pierre; Zon, Aboubacar-Oumar; Diesse, Hermane; Meniko, Jean Pierre Pitchou; Ebuy, Jerome; Kassi, Justin N'Dja; Chirwa, Paxie W. (MDPI, 2025-06)
This study aimed to evaluate the role of trees outside forests on agricultural land (TOF-AL) in preserving the initial aboveground biomass (AGB) of forests within the agricultural landscape of Mongala province in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In 2024, tree inventories were conducted over four months in the forests and agricultural lands of Mongala province to analyse AGB. The effects of artisanal logging and charcoal production activities on the AGB conservation rate were considered. This study indicates that 78.3% of the trees encountered in agricultural lands were large-diameter trees (diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 60 cm). In forest areas, large-diameter trees accounted for 55.9% of tree density. The average AGBs are 66.8 Mg ha−1 for TOF-AL and 373.5 Mg ha−1 for forest trees. The AGB of TOF-AL accounts for 17.9% of the AGB of the total forest trees. The AGB conservation rates vary by region, with Lisala having the highest at 22.1%, Bumba the lowest at 11.2%, and Bongandanga at 20.5%. Artisanal logging and charcoal production reduce the AGB conservation rate of TOF-AL. The AGB conservation rate is positively correlated with the distances to major cities. These results prove that conserving trees in agricultural landscapes can reduce the AGB losses associated with slash-and-burn agriculture and contribute to mitigating climate change effects.
Signal monitoring for adverse events following immunisation with COVID-19 vaccines during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic : an evaluation of the South African Surveillance System
Sankar, Chenoa; Evans, Stephen; Meyer, Johanna Catharina; Gunter, Hannah May; Sekiti, Victoria; McCarthy, Kerrigan (Springer, 2025-08)
INTRODUCTION : Monitoring of adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) is recommended for post-licensure surveillance. We investigated whether the South African surveillance system could detect signals of disproportionate reporting and whether these signals aligned with globally identified AEFI and adverse events of special interest (AESI) post-coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) vaccination. METHODS : This retrospective pharmacovigilance study undertook disproportionality analysis of the National Department of Health AEFI database from the start of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout on 17 May 2021 to 31 December 2022. We complemented this with AEFI reports for vaccines not on the routine Expanded Programme on Immunisation schedule, to address potential masking of signals due to the high reporting rate of COVID-19 vaccine AEFI. RESULTS : During the study period, 3846 AEFI were reported for 37,537,009 doses of COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S) administered. The overall reporting rate was 10.2 per 100,000 doses, 18.1/100,000 and 7.9/100,000 for Ad26.COV2.S and BNT162b2, respectively. Comparison with other countries suggests underreporting. Disproportionate reporting signals were obtained for three and seven AEFI following BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines, respectively. An additional three AEFI signals from Ad26.COV2.S emerged in the augmented dataset, indicating masking. All Ad26.COV2.S signals, and one BNT162b2 signal, appear in the vaccines’ product information. Among nine AESI evaluated, myocarditis/pericarditis presented as a signal of disproportionate reporting following BNT162b2 vaccination. CONCLUSIONS : This study is one of the first from a lower-middle-income country, using a spontaneous reporting system for signal detection post-COVID-19 vaccination. Signals aligned with those reported globally. The study highlights the need to further investigate underreporting, masking, and system attributes for system strengthening.
A window of opportunity a third, and domestically focused, modern movement in South Africa
Barker, Arthur Adrian Johnson (Docomomo International, 2025-08)
The effects of climate change, resource depletion, and volatile economic circumstances require a reflection on current design approaches that can be gained through lessons from the original and mediated intentions of the Modern Movement. An important example can be found in South Africa before WW II, where the introduction of standardized building materials, particularly metal-framed windows, generated unique, mediated Modern Movement-inspired domestic interiors resulting from responses to a burgeoning industry, physical context, and functionalist attitudes to human activities. The clarion call of the Modern Movement for an architecture of economy, efficiency, and health underlined Le Corbusier’s “Cinq Points de l’Architecture Moderne” (Curtis, 1996, p. 175). This dictum was transmigrated to South Africa through the work of the zerohour Group formed in 1932. Unfortunately, the starkness of the ‘foreign’ architecture did not resonate with the general public, while interiors overheated and flat roofs leaked in the summer. In 1936, Iscor, a South African company, began assembling standardized metal window frames. Architects like Norman Eaton, Hellmut Stauch, and Robert Cole Bowen, sensitive to local contexts, utilized these metal window frames to create unique architectural interiors. The windows and associated modules not only provided an economical construction and structural logic through planning efficiency but generated more contextually and climatically related interiors, healthier internal environments, and fluid internal-external relationships. This article delves into the origins and impacts of the Modern Movement in Johannesburg and Pretoria, focusing on the transformative influence of the standard metal window. Then, the bioclimatic, technological, and spatial effects of these windows on residential interiors and their lasting legacy will be highlighted.
Spatially-differentiated regulation of alien species can be improved using species distribution models : Psidium guajava in South Africa as a case study
Mbobo, Tumeka; Richardson, David M.; Datta, Arunava; Faulkner, Katelyn T.; Wilson, John R.U. (Wiley, 2025-10)
AIM : Biological invasions can generate conflicts between those who benefit from alien taxa and those threatened by subsequent invasions. Ideally, regulations should be proportionate to the level of threat—regulations perceived as unwarranted are likely to result in conflicts. We explore options for spatially differentiated regulation of alien species using Psidium guajava as a case study. LOCATION : South Africa. METHODS : Using various sources, we mapped sites across the country where guava is cultivated, naturalised, and has formed invasive monocultures. We identified areas under threat of invasions using species distribution models (SDMs). RESULTS : Our models predict that guava invasions are likely along South Africa's east coast. However, the niche dynamic indices indicate a larger cultivated niche than a naturalised niche, suggesting that there are areas in South Africa suitable for guava cultivation where invasions are unlikely. Our SDMs suggest that almost half the area regulated at the provincial level does not require regulation; this spatial over-regulation could be reduced to ~20% if regulations were at the next lower political level. CONCLUSIONS : We recommend that current regulation of guava be aligned to the level of threat. For example, guava is currently regulated in the North-West province, but we found no records of naturalisation and SDMs suggest the climate is not suitable. However, we note a trade-off between the resolution of the regulations and enforceability. We argue that: at lower levels there will be dispersal of fruits between unregulated and regulated areas as the distances between areas will be short; the SDMs produced here are not of sufficient resolution to accurately predict local conditions; and very localised variations in regulations will be complicated to enforce. Although SDMs can easily be over-interpreted, we believe that their judicious use provides a valuable method of interpreting field information in a form useful for regulators so conflicts can be avoided.
Labdane diterpenoids from Leonotis ocymifolia with selective cytotoxic activity against HCC70 breast cancer cell line
Ncongwane, Jane Busisiwe; Tembu, Vuyelwa Jacqueline; Nkambule, Comfort Mduduzi; Kemboi, Douglas; Fouche, Gerda; Vukea, Nyeleti; De la Mare, Jo-Anne (MDPI, 2025-05-01)
Please read abstract in the article.
The phosphorus negotiation game (P-Game): first evaluation of a serious game to support science-policy decision making played in more than 20 countries worldwide
Haneklaus, Nils; Kaggwa, Mary; Misihairabgwi, Jane; Abu El-Magd, Sherif; Ahmadi, Naima; Ait Brahim, Jamal; Amasi, Aloyce; Kovacs, Andrea Ballane; Bartela, Lukasz; Bellefqih, Hajar; Beniazza, Redouane; Bernas, Jaroslav; Bilal, Essaid; Bituh, Tomislav; Chernysh, Yelizaveta; Chubur, Viktoriia; Ciric, Jelena; Dolezal, Claudia; Figulova, Andrea; Filipi, Janja; Glavan, Gordana; Guzsvinecz, Tibor; Horvath, Laszlo; Josimovski, Sasho; Kiselicki, Martin; Lazarus, Maja; Kazazic, Maja; Komlosi, Istvan; Maged, Ali; Mashifana, Tebogo; Medunic, Gordana; Mehic, Emina; Mongi, Felhi; Mtei, Kelvin; Mwalongo, Dennis; Mwimanzi, Jerome M.; Nowak, Jakub; Basal, Oqba; Qamouche, Khaoula; Rajfur, Malgorzata; Roubik, Hynek; Santa, Mijalche; Sik-Lanyi, Cecilia; Sippel, Maike; Steiner, Gerald; Skorek-Osikowska, Anna; Slavov, Anton; Swislowski, Pawel; Tlili, Ali; Trenevska-Blagoeva, Kalina; Tschalakov, Ivan; Vlcek, Tomas; Waclawek, Stanislaw; Zlatanovic, Ivan; Misik, Matus; Brink, Hendrik Gideon; Lee, Tzong-Ru (Springer, 2025-01)
Environmental negotiations are complex, and conveying the interaction between science and policy in traditional teaching methods is challenging. To address this issue, innovative educational approaches like serious gaming and role-playing games have emerged. These methods allow students to actively explore the roles of different stakeholders in environmental decision-making and weigh for instance between sometimes conflicting UN Sustainable Development Goals or other dilemmas. In this work the phosphorus negotiation game (P-Game) is for the first time introduced. We present the initial quantitative and qualitative findings derived from engaging 788 students at various academic levels (Bachelor, Master, PhD, and Postdoc) across three continents and spanning 22 different countries. Quantitative results indicate that female participants and MSc students benefitted the most significantly from the P-Game, with their self-reported knowledge about phosphorus science and negotiation science/practice increasing by 71–93% (overall), 86–100% (females), and 73–106% (MSc students in general). Qualitative findings reveal that the P-Game can be smoothly conducted with students from diverse educational and cultural backgrounds. Moreover, students highly value their participation in the P-Game, which can be completed in just 2–3 h. This game not only encourages active engagement among participants but also provides valuable insights into the complex environmental issues associated with global phosphorus production. We strongly believe that the underlying methodology described here could also be used for other topics. HIGHLIGHTS • The Phosphorus Negotiation Game (P-Game) is for the first time introduced. • First results from playing in 22 countries with 788 participants are presented. • The P-Game can be played well with participants from various backgrounds.
Bush encroachment and invasive alien plant species' linkage to outmigration
Newete, Solomon W.; Chirima, Johannes George; Tswai, Richard (Springer, 2025-06)
The most prominent drivers of international migration across borders and internal migration-rural to urban areas are explained by the ‘push and pull’ migration model. However, this model falls short in addressing migrations driven by the impacts of climate change, such as the movement from rural to urban area as a coping strategy for environmental degradation. Factors like deforestation, desertification, droughts, and floods are key drivers of such migration. Additionally, bush encroachment and the spread of invasive alien plant species disrupt landscapes and negatively affect ecosystem goods and services in many arid and semi-arid regions around the world. This phenomenon directly affects the livelihoods of rural communities by depriving them of their croplands, rangelands, and ranches. Despite this, there is a lack of sufficient information on how these factors are linked to migratory movements, whether from rural to urban areas or between rural regions. To explore this connection, this study reviewed scientific publications, including journal articles and books using key phrases such as, ‘push and pull migration factors’, ‘impact of bush encroachment on migration’ and ‘impact of invasive alien plants on migration factors’, among others. A total of 155 documents were downloaded via Google Scholar, of which 99 were thoroughly reviewed and included in the study. The remaining 53 documents were skimmed and excluded due to their irrelevance, or limited contribution to the research. The study found that the bush encroachment and invasive plant species in rangelands are significant push factors for driving migration, both between rural areas and rural to urban areas. It is, therefore, recommended that these two factors be given a greater attention when addressing outmigration from rural regions.
Assessing the needs of healthcare information for assisting family caregivers in cancer fear management : a mindsponge-based approach
Sari, Ni Putu-Wulan Purnama; Mazenda, Adrino; Duong, Minh-Phuong Thi; Putra, Made Mahaguna; Yudamuckti, Pande Made Arbi; Nguyen, Minh-Hoang; Vuong, Quan-Hoang (Springer, 2025-05)
Please read abstract in the article.
Spatial analysis of under-five mortality in Africa using geographically weighted poisson regression
Olusola, Johnson Adedeji; Oyinloye, Adedeji Adigun; Akeju, Kemi F.; Ogunsakin, Ropo Ebenezer; Moyo, Sibusiso (Springer, 2025-07)
Child mortality remains a significant public health challenge in developing countries despite the global decline in under-five deaths. The disparities in child mortality rates can be attributed to socioeconomic and environmental inequalities across nations. While several studies have examined geographic variations in under-five mortality in Africa using economic and health indicators, few have applied spatial analysis to characterize these patterns. This study employs Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) to uncover spatially varying in effects of global indicators on under-five mortality across Africa, offering a detailed understanding not captured by conventional global models. Data on under-five mortality rates and economic and health indicators were obtained from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) for 2022 across 54 African countries. A Poisson regression model and GWPR were applied to examine the associations between under-five mortality and various socioeconomic and environmental factors. The results indicate substantial spatial heterogeneity in child mortality across countries. The GWPR model (AICc = 221.25, Pseudo R2 = 86.5%) outperformed the conventional Poisson regression model (AICc = 360.733, Pseudo R2 = 58.4%), highlighting the benefits of incorporating spatial variability. Key findings revealed that under-five mortality was positively associated with open defecation and negatively associated with literacy, health expenditure, access to electricity, and basic sanitation. Additionally, the relationship between under-five mortality, gross national expenditure, and access to basic drinking water varied across regions. These findings emphasize the need for localized, evidence-based interventions to address child mortality more effectively in Africa.
Socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with anaemia among women of reproductive age in Zimbabwe : a supervised machine learning approach
Chemhaka, Garikayi; Mbunge, Elliot; Dzinamarira, Tafadzwa; Musuka, Godfrey; Batani, John; Muchemwa, Benhildah; Fashoto, Stephen; Mapingure, Munyaradzi; Makota, Rutendo Birri; Petrus, Ester (Springer, 2025-04)
Anaemia affects approximately one-third of women of reproductive age globally, with the highest burden observed in resource-limited countries. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with anaemia and predict anaemia among women in Zimbabwe. Using nationally representative, cross-sectional data from the 2015 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), a dataset from a sample of 5412 women of reproductive age was analyzed. The Chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression were employed to identify independent predictors of anaemia, while Elastic Net was used for feature importance scoring. To address the class imbalance, the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was applied. The prevalence of anaemia among women in Zimbabwe was 24.1%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed significant associations between anaemia and several factors, including older age (35–49 years) (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] = 1.31), marital status (being married) (aOR = 0.72), higher education (aOR = 0.47), middle household wealth (aOR = 1.32), professional occupation (aOR = 1.60), current use of modern contraceptives (aOR = 0.59), and overweight/obesity (aOR = 0.56). The highest burden was observed in Matabeleland South province (aOR = 3.44). Among prediction models, the random forest classifier outperformed K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and decision trees, achieving an accuracy of 74%, recall of 78%, F1-score of 75%, precision of 72%, and an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 81.5%. Targeted interventions focusing on key socioeconomic and demographic characteristics could help reduce anaemia in women of reproductive age. Predictive models can aid healthcare practitioners in identifying at-risk individuals and implementing timely interventions to mitigate the impact of anaemia.
Estimating the local-level child full polio vaccination rates in Ethiopia using a hierarchical Bayes small area estimation approach
Yilema, Seyifemickael Amare; Shiferaw, Yegnanew A.; Fenta, Haile Mekonnen; Belay, Alebachew Taye (Springer, 2025-05)
Vaccination is one of the most effective, affordable, and life-saving medical interventions ever created. Child vaccination is fundamental to building a healthy and welfare society, which is crucial in 2063 African and 2030 global agendas. This study combines the 2019 Mini Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) with the 2007 population and housing census datasets to employ the hierarchical Bayes (HB) small area estimation (SAE) approach for estimating local-level child vaccination rates. In the HB SAE framework, the deviance information criterion (DIC) was used to select the best candidate model among the three different models fitted. The logistic normal mixed model with known sampling variance was chosen over the other two models (Fay-Herriot model and log-normal mixed model). The mean coefficient of variation (CV) for direct survey-based estimates is 44.41, which is higher than that for the model-based HB estimates at 36.40. Similarly, the root mean square errors (RMSE) of direct survey estimates are greater than those of the corresponding model-based estimates. Therefore, the results suggest that the HB estimates show improvement over the survey-based estimates. This finding also contributes to the sustainable development goal for health (SDG3), which aims to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for people around the globe.
Community-led interventions for HIV and AIDS prevention, treatment, and care in Southern Africa : a scoping review
Moyo, Enos; Moyo, Perseverance; Murewanhema, Grant; Mhlanga-Gunda, Rosemary; Dzinamarira, Tafadzwa (Springer, 2025-03)
BACKGROUND : Over the past few decades, significant progress has been made in containing the HIV epidemic worldwide. A few countries, primarily in Southern Africa, have met the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals. However, this does not warrant complacency. The contribution of communities to these gains is immeasurable. Therefore, there is a need to sustain and expand the involvement of communities in the testing, prevention, and treatment of HIV. AIM : This study aims to assess the scope and outcomes of community-led HIV interventions conducted in Southern Africa. STUDY DESIGN : This study followed a scoping review design. DATA SOURCES : PubMed, ScienceDirect, SCOPUS, Google Scholar, and Africa Journals Online (AJOL) databases were searched for peer-reviewed articles published in English between 2013 and 2023. METHODOLOGY : The scoping review was guided by the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews. The reporting followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist. Primary studies using mixed-methods, quantitative, and qualitative approaches that detailed HIV and AIDS community-led interventions carried out in Southern Africa were considered for this review. Two reviewers separately extracted the data from the included studies using a data extraction tool in Microsoft Excel. We used NVivo to develop codes and categories for the scope and outcomes of community-led interventions. RESULTS : Thirteen articles were included in this scoping review. Eleven of the studies were quantitative studies, one was a mixed-methods study, and another one was a qualitative study. Peer-based programs, adherence clubs, community conversations, support groups, community-based HIV testing, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) linkage are some of the community-led interventions found in this scoping review. The outcomes of these interventions include increased awareness of HIV and AIDS, decreased risky behaviours and stigma related to HIV, increased disclosure of partners' HIV status, increased testing for HIV, linkage to care, adherence to ART, retention in care, and viral suppression. CONCLUSION : Based on the promise demonstrated in this review, further investment in and support for community-led HIV interventions in Southern Africa is justified. Scaling up these interventions, alongside robust evaluation efforts, holds significant potential to contribute to a more comprehensive and effective response to the HIV epidemic in the region.
A qualitative study of Nigerian community members awareness of Mpox and their willingness and barriers to receiving the Mpox vaccine
Olufadewa, Isaac Iyinoluwa; Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun; Oladele, Ruth Ifeoluwa; Olufadewa, Toluwase Ayobola; Okpokoro, Evaezi; Daodu, Oluwafemi Babatunde; Ige, Fehintola; Adebajo, Sylvia; Igumbor, Ehimario Uche; Shaibu, Joseph Ojonugwa; Ibrahim, Musbaudeen Olaitan; Audu, Rosemary Ajuma (Springer, 2025-05)
BACKGROUND : Two vaccines, the JYNNEOS and ACAM 2000 have been approved for use for Mpox protection, however vaccine hesitancy and vaccine refusal poses a significant challenge in its uptake. This study explored participants’ awareness of Mpox, willingness, and barriers to receiving the approved Mpox vaccines when they become available in Nigeria. METHOD : This was a qualitative cross-sectional study. Participants were recruited using a purposive sampling technique. A total of 16 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and 64 in-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted by trained research assistants among community members in four states in Nigeria (Bayelsa, Delta, Lagos, and Rivers states) between October 1 and November 30, 2023. The interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed before thematic analysis was conducted. RESULTS : One hundred and sixty-four persons, comprising 71 males and 93 females, participated in this study. The anticipated rollout of the Mpox vaccine in Nigeria elicited mixed reactions; while some participants expressed willingness to be vaccinated, others expressed their concerns about the vaccine side effects, vaccine safety, and their mistrust of new vaccines. There were also reports about physical access and financial cost being a barrier to receiving the Mpox vaccine. CONCLUSION : The study highlights the critical need for more community-based public health education campaigns to enhance awareness and correct misconceptions about Mpox. Effective communication strategies that address specific community issues and emphasize vaccine safety are important for increasing vaccination uptake and controlling the spread of Mpox in Nigeria.

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