Abstract:
This study applies Zartman's theory of ripeness to the Zimbabwean conflict over the
period 2000-2009. According to this theory conflicts can only be resolved when the
parties have reached a stalemate and perceived mediation as an alternative way out.
As long as the two main protagonists in the Zimbabwean conflict, Zimbabwe African
National Union (Patriotic Front) (ZANU-PF) and Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC) had not reached a stalemate, it was not possible to resolve the conflict by
means of an assisted negotiation. It is this that explains why it was very difficult for
the Southern African Development Community {SADC) to resolve the conflict in
Zimbabwe that started more or less in 2000 and turned more violent as time went on.
Several efforts made by President Mbeki both on his behalf and on behalf of SADC
made no lead way precisely because the conflict was not yet ripe for resolution. It
was after only the 2008 elections saw the MDC - Tsvangirai gaining huge electoral
support that challenged the ZANU - PF's hold on power that things began to change
for ZANU-PF which up to this point it had hoped to destroy MDC through violence
against its leaders, members and supporters. The electoral outcome demonstrated
large support for the MDC that could no longer be ignored. Accommodation with
MDC was the only way out. The violence that followed the parliamentary elections
threatened to destroy the country and forced Tsvangirai to abandon the re-run of the
presidential elections clearly demonstrated to the MDC that ZANU-PF and Mugabe
could not be defeated through the ballot box as they controlled the security forces.
The only way to share power was to negotiate with the ZANU-PF. At this point both
parties were ready to enter into meaningful negotiations and resolve their
differences. It was beyond dispute that a stalemate had been reached and some
form of accommodation and compromise was necessary. Hence the acceptance of
mediation which resulted in the signing of the Global Political Agreement in 2009 and
the creation of the government of national unity.
