dc.contributor.author |
Engelbrecht, Christien J.
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Phakula, Steven
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Landman, Willem Adolf
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Engelbrecht, Francois A.
|
|
dc.date.accessioned |
2022-08-22T12:36:42Z |
|
dc.date.available |
2022-08-22T12:36:42Z |
|
dc.date.issued |
2021-02 |
|
dc.description.abstract |
The NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF hindcasts are used to explore the deterministic subseasonal predictability of
the 850-hPa circulation of a large domain over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans that is relevant to the weather and climate of
the southern African region. For NCEP CFSv2, 12 years of hindcasts, starting on 1 January 1999 and initialized daily for four
ensemble members up to 31 December 2010 are verified against ERA-Interim reanalysis data. For ECMWF, 20 years of
hindcasts (1995–2014), initialized once a month for all the months of the year are employed in a parallel analysis to investigate the predictability of the 850-hPa circulation. The ensemble mean for 7-day moving averages is used to assess the
prediction skill for all the start dates in each month of the year, with a focus on the start dates in each month that are
representative of the week-3 and week-4 hindcasts. The correlation between the anomaly patterns over the study domain
shows skill over persistence up into the week-3 hindcasts for some months. The spatial distribution of the correlation
between the anomaly patterns show skill over persistence to notably reduce over the domain by week 3. A prominent area
where prediction skill survives the longest, occur over central South America and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. |
en_US |
dc.description.department |
Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology |
en_US |
dc.description.librarian |
dm2022 |
en_US |
dc.description.sponsorship |
NRF |
en_US |
dc.description.uri |
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/wefo-overview.xml |
en_US |
dc.identifier.citation |
Engelbrecht, Christien & Phakula, Steven & Landman, Willem & Engelbrecht, Francois. (2021). Subseasonal Deterministic Prediction Skill of Low-Level Geopotential Height Affecting Southern Africa. Weather and Forecasting. 36. 1-1. 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0008.1. |
en_US |
dc.identifier.issn |
1520-0434 (online) |
|
dc.identifier.issn |
0882-8156 (print) |
|
dc.identifier.other |
10.1175/WAF-D-20-0008.1 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
https://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/86909 |
|
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_US |
dc.publisher |
Universitätsverlag Potsdam |
en_US |
dc.rights |
© 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright
Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Climate prediction |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Ensembles |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Forecast verification/skill |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Hindcasts |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Operational forecasting |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Seasonal forecasting |
en_US |
dc.title |
Subseasonal deterministic prediction skill of low-level geopotential height affecting southern Africa |
en_US |
dc.type |
Article |
en_US |