Abstract:
The study focus on the analysis of extreme precipitation events of the present and future climate over southern Africa.
Parametric and non-parametric approaches are used to identify and analyse these extreme events in data from the
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models. The performance of the global climate
model (GCM) forced regional climate model (RCM) simulations shows that the models are able to capture the
observed climatological spatial patterns of the extreme precipitation. It is also shown that the downscaling of the present
climate are able to add value to the performance of GCMs over some areas and depending on the metric used. The
added value over GCMs justify the additional computational effort of RCM simulation for the generation relevant
climate information for regional application. In the climate projections for the end of twenty-first Century (2069-2098)
relative to the reference period (1976-2005), annual total precipitation is projected to decrease while the maximum
number of consecutive dry days increases. Maximum 5-day precipitation amounts and 95th percentile of precipitation
are also projected to increase significantly in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of southern Africa and decrease in the
extra-tropical region. There are indications that rainfall intensity is likely to increase. This does not equate to an
increase in total rainfall, but suggests that when it does rain, the intensity is likely to be greater. These changes are
magnified under the RCP8.5 when compared with the RCP4.5 and are consistent with previous studies based on GCMs
over the region.
