dc.contributor.author |
Pierdzioch, Christian
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Reid, Monique B.
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Gupta, Rangan
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|
dc.date.accessioned |
2016-05-11T16:43:19Z |
|
dc.date.issued |
2016-06 |
|
dc.description.abstract |
We use South African survey data to study whether inflation forecasts are unbiased. Depending on a fore- caster’s information set, we evaluate whether forecasts are biased due to forecaster herding. Forecaster herding is strong when a forecaster’s information set contains no information on the contemporaneous forecasts of others. When we randomly allocate forecasters into a group of early forecasters who can only observe the past forecasts of others and late forecasters who can also observe the contemporaneous forecasters of their predecessors, evidence of forecaster herding weakens. Evidence of forecaster (anti-) herding is strong and significant in times of high (low) inflation volatility. |
en_ZA |
dc.description.department |
Economics |
en_ZA |
dc.description.embargo |
2017-06-30 |
|
dc.description.librarian |
hb2016 |
en_ZA |
dc.description.sponsorship |
German Science Foundation (DFG) (FR 2677/4-1) (project Macroeconomic Forecasting in Great Crises). |
en_ZA |
dc.description.uri |
http://www.elsevier.com/locate/socec |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.citation |
Pierdzioch, C, Reid, MB & Gupta, R 2016, 'Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding : evidence from South African survey data', Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, vol. 62, pp. 42-53. |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.issn |
2214-8043 (print) |
|
dc.identifier.issn |
2214-8051 (online) |
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dc.identifier.other |
10.1016/j.socec.2016.03.004 |
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dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/2263/52590 |
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dc.language.iso |
en |
en_ZA |
dc.publisher |
Elsevier |
en_ZA |
dc.rights |
© 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, vol. 62, pp. 42-53, 2016. doi : 10.1016/j.socec.2016.03.004. |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Inflation rate |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Forecasting |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Forecaster herding |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
South African survey data |
en_ZA |
dc.title |
Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding : evidence from South African survey data |
en_ZA |
dc.type |
Postprint Article |
en_ZA |