Abstract:
Using updated population forecasts, this paper presents alternative growth scenarios
for South Africa up to 2035, and their implications for employment, politics and
poverty. ‘Bafana Bafana Redux’ is the expected current trajectory. This scenario takes
into account the impact of policy incoherence and the electricity supply crisis on
South Africa’s long-term prospects. With concerted effort and much greater focus,
an improved future, dubbed ‘Mandela Magic Lite’, is possible – but neither scenario
has a significant impact on structural unemployment. South Africa will only achieve
long-term stability and prosperity with a leadership committed to inclusive political and
economic practices.
