dc.contributor.author |
Groneck, Max
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Ludwig, Alexander
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Zimper, Alexander
|
|
dc.date.accessioned |
2016-03-08T05:51:39Z |
|
dc.date.issued |
2016-03 |
|
dc.description.abstract |
Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities re ecting likelihood in-
sensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian
learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational notion of neo-
additive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We embed these neo-
additive survival beliefs as decision weights in a Choquet expected utility life-cycle
consumption model and calibrate it with data on subjective survival beliefs from
the Health and Retirement Study. Our quantitative analysis shows that agents
with calibrated neo-additive survival beliefs (i) save less than originally planned,
(ii) exhibit undersaving at younger ages, and (iii) hold larger amounts of assets
in old age than their rational expectations counterparts who correctly assess their
survival chances. Our neo-additive life-cycle model can therefore simultaneously
accommodate three important empirical ndings on household saving behavior. |
en_ZA |
dc.description.embargo |
2017-03-31 |
|
dc.description.librarian |
hb2015 |
en_ZA |
dc.description.sponsorship |
Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement (Netspar), the Research Center SAFE, funded by the State of Hessen initiative for research LOEWE, the State North Rhine-Westphalia and Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA). |
en_ZA |
dc.description.uri |
http://www.sciencedirect.com |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.citation |
Groneck, M, Ludwig, A & Zimper, A 2015, 'A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs', Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 162, pp. 137-180. |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.issn |
0022-0531 (print) |
|
dc.identifier.issn |
1095-7235 (online) |
|
dc.identifier.other |
0.1016/j.jet.2015.12.008 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/2263/51709 |
|
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_ZA |
dc.publisher |
Elsevier |
en_ZA |
dc.rights |
© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Economic Theory. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 162, pp. 137-180, 2015. doi : 10.1016/j.jet.2015.12.008. |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Bayesian learning |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Likelihood insensitivity |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Ambiguity |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Choquet expected utility |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Dynamic inconsistency |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Life-cycle hypothesis |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Saving puzzles |
en_ZA |
dc.title |
A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs |
en_ZA |
dc.type |
Postprint Article |
en_ZA |