Abstract:
Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate
projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into
potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health
impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate
change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a
moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of
the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African
highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the
absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections
described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of
appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from
climate change.
