Abstract:
The main objective of this study is to determine whether human-forecaster at the main
airports of South Africa add value to the raw numerical weather prediction model
output when they provide forecast services to the aviation industry. Data set pairs of
weather observations made at these airports and terminal aerodrome forecasts were
constructed for the three forecast systems: the human-forecaster, persistence forecast
and the raw output from the 12 km resolution the Unified Model administered by the
South African Weather Service. These three data set pairs were independently
evaluated by the in house developed forecast verification system of the South African
Weather Service. A Monte Carlo method was used to determine the significance of
the verification results obtained from calculating the proportion correct, hit rate, false
alarm ratio, critical success index, Heidke skill score and the Pierce skill score of the
various forecasts. In general, it was found that the forecaster-adapted forecasts are
superior to the raw model output, thus providing the evidence that the aviation industry
may benefit most from forecasts routinely issued by South African Weather Service
forecasters.
