Abstract:
This paper explores the changing power capabilities of Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia,
Nigeria, and South Africa (the ‘Big Five’) over the next 25 years. Of these countries,
Ethiopia and Nigeria are forecast to increase their power capabilities, whereas Algeria,
Egypt and South Africa are expected to stagnate or decline. Of the Big Five, two
currently punch above their weight – one that is rising, Ethiopia, and another whose
growth is stagnant, South Africa. If Nigeria were able to take the necessary steps that
would see far-reaching changes to the governance issues and social challenges that
currently beset the country, it could become Africa’s lone superpower.
