The impact of regulatory fines on shareholder returns

Abstract

Recent media reports surrounding the 2010 Soccer World Cup infrastructure, and the fines imposed by the Competition Commission drew the public’s attention to the impact that regulatory fines have on the returns earned by shareholders in these convicted companies. The purpose of the research was to establish if any significant impact on shareholder returns can be identified as a result of regulatory fines. By using event study methodology, the researcher aimed to establish if an impact can be identified at the various stages of the regulatory process. Statistical tests were conducted via the implementation of Monte Carlo Simulations at the various stages of the process, to ensure that the findings were significant. The studies revealed that shareholder returns were neutrally affected at the initiation and payment stages of the process, but that the returns were positively affected at the conviction stage. A style analysis (longitudinal study) was undertaken to determine if a portfolio consisting of stocks of convicted companies would out-perform the market over certain determined timeframes. As a baseline test, a portfolio was constructed of stocks of companies which have never been fined. The results revealed that both portfolios out-performed the market (ALL160) over a 24-year period, but that the portfolio consisting of convicted companies did not out-perform the portfolio of companies which have never been fined.