Abstract:
Estimation of survival rates is important for
developing and evaluating conservation options for large
carnivores. However, telemetry studies for large carnivores
are often characterized by small sample sizes that limit
meaningful conclusions. We used data from 10 published
and 8 unpublished studies of leopards Panthera pardus in
southern Africa to estimate survival rates and investigate
causes of leopard mortality. Mean survival rates were significantly
lower in non-protected (0.55 ± SE 0.08) compared
to protected areas (0.88 ± 0.03). Inside protected areas
juveniles had significantly lower survival (0.39 ± 0.10) compared
to subadults (0.86 ± 0.07) and adults (0.88 ± 0.04).
There was a greater difference in cause of death between
protected and non-protected areas for females compared to
males, with people being the dominant cause of mortality
outside protected areas for both females and males. We
suggest there is cause for concern regarding the sustainability
of leopard populations in South Africa, as high
female mortality may have severe demographic effects and a large proportion of suitable leopard habitat lies
in non-protected areas. However, because a large proportion
of deaths outside protected areas were attributed
to deliberate killing by people, we suggest that management
interventions may have the potential to increase
leopard survival dramatically. We therefore stress the
urgency to initiate actions, such as conflict mitigation
programmes, to increase leopard survival in non-protected
areas.
