A case for smarter city growth : a strategic analysis of Cape Town’s Phase 1A BRT system and its supporting land use environment

Abstract

Paper presented at the 32nd Annual Southern African Transport Conference 8-11 July 2013 "Transport and Sustainable Infrastructure", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.

Cape Town’s high quality Phase 1a BRT starter service (MyCiTi) commenced operating between the CBD and Table View in May 2011, in a combination of segregated bus lane and mixed traffic environments. Peak ridership of the completed MyCiTi Phase 1a service is forecast to be 3,252 pax/hr/dir, which is low compared to international BRT norms. This paper reports the findings of a research project which undertook to: investigate the potential for underutilisation of the BRT system’s capacity in the short-medium term; and assess the importance of complimentary transport interventions to increase ridership on, and supporting land use interventions to accelerate and incentivise an appropriate land use response to, the MyCiTi Phase 1a system. An analysis of the MyCiTi Phase 1a system was undertaken to determine the maximum practical capacity relative to projected passenger demand. It was estimated that the completed MyCiTi Phase 1a service will have a maximum practical capacity of around 12,500 pax/hr/dir. Forecasting and backcasting spreadsheet models were developed to assess the impacts of a ‘Business as Usual’ approach with respect to land development and mode share within the West Coast corridor, against an alternative ‘Smarter City Growth’ scenario. Whilst the spreadsheet models make numerous simplifying assumptions, the appraisal demonstrates that alternative policy pathways may be needed to bring about systematic and structural changes to the prevailing ‘Business as Usual’ urban development model in order to support the MyCiTi system. On the basis of the research findings, the paper concludes with a recommendation that complimentary packages of land use interventions and travel demand management programmes need to be formulated and aligned to the rollout of Integrated Rapid Public Transport Networks.