Economic development in Nigeria through the agricultural, manufacturing and mining sectors : an econometric approach

Abstract

In the 1960s, Nigeria was on a par, in terms of aspirations to attain a very high level of economic growth and development, with its fellow-oil producing and exporting countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia, but has since failed to keep pace with them. Nigeria’s agricultural, manufacturing and mining and quarrying sectors have played a continuous and significant role in the development of the country’s economy. The approval of the millennium development goals (MGDs) by the United Nations General Assembly therefore raises three pivotal questions for Nigeria. 1) Why is Nigeria still an underdeveloped and lowincome country? 2) What should the country do to make rapid economic and social progress? and 3) How can it attain a high level of economic development and growth?. This is the background of this study, which is an empirical investigation into the factors affecting Nigeria’s bid to achieve sustainable economic growth and development with particular reference to such sectors as agriculture, manufacturing and mining and quarrying (solid minerals) over the period of 1970-2005. This involves the analysis of the relevance of the health care and education sectors and examination of impediments to past economic development, a development model applicable to Nigeria, the efforts made and the challenges facing the country in achieving the MDGs, and the role of foreign development partners in complementing Nigeria’s development efforts. The methodology adopted for this study is sectoral-econometric modelling, using the Engle- Yoo (1991) model, which contributes to bridging the gap seen in empirical studies in the application of a multivariate dynamic econometric cointegration model on the effect of domestic and foreign financial resources investment for the development of the growth sectors in the Nigerian economy. The model captures the essential linkages between the growth sectors and the country’s efforts to achieve a high level of economic development. The results from the simulations are broadly consistent with findings described in theoretical and empirical literature. There is a strong positive relationship between the gross output of the agricultural, manufacturing and mining and quarrying sectors and labour input and public capital expenditure for the growth sectors. Also there is a strong positive relationship between the agricultural credit guarantee scheme, fertiliser and the gross output of agriculture. Furthermore, the findings show a positive impact of the structural adjustment programme with the agricultural and manufacturing production. Dynamic simulation of results was undertaken to assess the path of the 10 percent dynamic adjustment (shocks) on the relevant exogenous variables and the response properties show remarkable and positive significant impact due to the shocks. The estimated actual and forecast values of the equations in the model show notable increase in the amount and growth of the gross domestic product of the real sectors in Naira billion from 2005 to 2008. The study calls to question rigid government control over the mining and quarrying sector. The importance of mining and quarrying in accelerating the pace of economic growth in Nigeria should rather motivate the government to deregulate and reform the sector. This will enable the government to attract investors into the sector, while effectively planning to encourage the proliferation of small-scale artisan, medium-scale and large-scale miners. The deregulation of the mining and quarrying sector will boost production, growth and development through employment creation, increased income of household miners and upliftment of the social and economic status of the vast majority of Nigerians. Some of the reasons identified for Nigeria’s poor economic performance include: the serious effect of “Dutch disease”, reflected in the country’s inability to manage and diversify its oil wealth to transform and achieve dynamic industrial (manufacturing), agricultural, mining, health and educational and other growth sectors. Nigeria also suffers the effects of a troubled political history, during which military rule persisted for extended periods. This study shows the importance of improving the knowledge base for policymaking, where intersectoral linkages between economic and social factors can be identified, and direct and indirect macroeconomic policy effects discerned. This distinguishes the study from earlier work in Nigeria on development policy. Achieving a high level of economic development through transforming the country’s real sectors will not only reduce poverty by providing food security, increased agricultural and industrial exports, increased per capita income and consumption, but will also bring about improved literacy and a healthy workforce and foster peace and security in Nigeria. In addition, success in transforming the real sectors will strengthen and broaden the productive base of the country, which currently relies heavily on the petroleum sector as the major earner of foreign exchange. In order to achieve a high level of economic development and growth, attention should be concentrated on channelling global financial resources to the above-mentioned sectors because of their strong linkages with and powerful value-added effect to the rest of the economy. Under the new democratic dispensation, there ought to be large investment into the growth and support sectors from domestic and external sources if the country is to attain the international growth target of achieving a high and sustainable level of economic development. Therefore, with a strong will to become a patriotic civil society, stable and prosperous, and enough wisdom to elect leaders with good will and fairly good knowledge of the country’s economy, great prospects lie before the Nigerian economy.