Winners and losers : the evolution of consumer spending mix as emerging markets mature

Abstract

Selling to emerging consumers is no small challenge, especially when a multinational is unfamiliar with a country’s distinctive consumer terrain. The objective of this research was to inform decision-makers in multinationals and domestic firms seeking investment opportunities to grow volume and margins in emerging markets. Consumer spending trends and economic data were analysed in order to assist companies to identify products and service categories (“winners”) to compete in within selected emerging markets. A literature review was followed by quantitative analysis of consumer spending trends in seventeen emerging markets selected from low-income, middle-income and upper-middle-income economies, as classified by the World Bank. Visual representation and inspection, as well as descriptive statistics of the data, were followed by statistical analysis. The paired sample t-test, the Wilcoxon test and stepwise regression techniques were used to test the research questions. The findings suggest that the services category, specifically education and medical services, gained significant share of consumer spending. The durable goods category share remained flat and generic “losers” emerged mainly from the non-durable goods and semi-durable goods sub-categories. It seems as though few generic winners and losers exist and that a country-by-country analysis needs to be conducted.