Inorganic fertilizer consumption in SADC region in the context of the Malabo declaration : sub-regional analysis

Abstract

African Union Member States sign declarations such as the Malabo Declaration with the hope of eradicating hunger, ending poverty, and achieving food security. Agriculture, a key driver towards this goal, necessitates strategically using agricultural inputs, mainly inorganic fertilizers. Therefore, this study examined the trends, contributing factors, and the effect of the Malabo Declaration on inorganic fertilizer consumption in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and its subregions. The production, consumption, supply, and demand of fertilizers were discussed. The study employed a panel data analysis of 13 SADC member states over a 20-year period (2002-2021). The SADC subregions were classified into income and agroecological zone (AEZ) subregions. The poolability test, Hausman test, and diagnostic tests (autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, cross-section dependence, and multicollinearity) were performed on each model, and violations of classical linear regression assumptions were corrected. The study revealed significant fluctuations in the consumption of inorganic fertilizers primarily influenced by global events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The findings further indicated that GDP per capita, agricultural expenditure, the Malabo Declaration, the status of a country as land-linked or not, land area equipped for irrigation, the share of the population in agriculture, arable land per capita and lagged annual precipitation were among the factors that influenced inorganic fertilizer consumption. However, the factors affecting inorganic fertilizer consumption differed across subregions. The study further highlighted that the effect of the Malabo Declaration on inorganic fertilizer consumption yielded potential differences across the member states and subregions mainly due to diverse socioeconomic and environmental factors. In the context of the Malabo Declaration, the AEZ subregions revealed superior findings compared to the Income subregions. Some noteworthy outcomes were that after the Malabo Declaration was signed, inorganic fertilizer consumption increased by 0.28% and 0.59% in the Semi-humid and Arid subregions, respectively. With these findings, the study recommended that the SADC member states continue to prioritise implementing the Malabo Declaration’s target of applying the recommended 50 kg/ha of fertilizers to the soils to enhance agricultural productivity. It was further recommended that member states domesticate these declarations and agricultural policies to suit each country’s local conditions and ensure they improve farmers’ income. By optimising inorganic fertilizer use and addressing the major challenges that each member state faces, the SADC region can achieve its agricultural and food security goals.