A measurement model for real estate bubble size based on the panel data analysis : an empirical case study

Abstract

Employing the fundamental value of real estate determined by the economic fundamentals, a measurement model for real estate bubble size is established based on the panel data analysis. Using this model, real estate bubble sizes in various regions in Japan in the late 1980s and in recent China are examined. Two panel models for Japan provide results, which are consistent with the reality in the 1980s where a commercial land price bubble appeared in most area and was much larger than that of residential land. This provides evidence of the reliability of our model, overcoming the limit of existing literature with this method. The same models for housing prices in China at both the provincial and city levels show that contrary to the concern of serious housing price bubble in China, over-valuing in recent China is much smaller than that in 1980s Japan.