Effects of vector control interventions on spatio-temporal changes of Falciparum malaria risk in children aged 2-10 in sub-Saharan African regions during 2011-2020

Abstract

BACKGROUND : Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has a disproportionately high malaria fatality rate globally, with young children accounting for the majority of fatalities. The objective of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria infection risk and assess the effect of vector control interventions on malaria infection rates in SSA nations. METHODS : We utilized data from the Malaria Atlas Project regarding the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections and vector control interventions across 634 administrative areas in 45 SSA countries over a decade. This study adopted spatiotemporal regression models using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods with a Bayesian setup. RESULTS : Between 2011 and 2020, the average annual prevalence rates of malaria infection among children aged 2 to 10 in SSA diminished from 21.32% in 2011 to 16.75% in 2016, with a slight resurgence observed in 2017. Each unit increase in the number of individuals utilizing insecticide-treated nets (ITN) annually correlates with a 34.07% reduction in the risk of malaria infection. A rise in malaria cases has prompted SSA to undertake serious control measures. The auto-regressive process reveals a highly significant temporal correlation, while the global spatial dependency parameter indicates a modest spatial correlation. The highest risk of malaria infection prevalence among children aged 2 to 10 was indicated in states in the West-central, Central, and certain Eastern regions. CONCLUSION : Given that the West-central, Central, and select Eastern states exhibit the highest rates of malaria infection, the global end malaria councils and the malaria control and elimination program should prioritize interventions in these regions, enhancing vector control measures and providing comprehensive training on their effective utilization to mitigate malaria risk in these areas.