A dynamical forecasting perspective on synoptic scale weather systems over southern Africa

dc.contributor.advisorVan Heerden, Jen
dc.contributor.coadvisorPoolman, E.R.en
dc.contributor.emailliesl.dyson@up.ac.zaen
dc.contributor.postgraduateDyson, Liesl L.
dc.date.accessioned2013-09-06T15:30:15Z
dc.date.available2006-04-07en
dc.date.available2013-09-06T15:30:15Z
dc.date.created2001-04-01en
dc.date.issued2000en
dc.date.submitted2006-03-27en
dc.descriptionDissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2000.en
dc.description.abstractHeavy rainfall and flooding often occur over South Africa. A high percentage of the heavy rainfall events occur over the eastern interior of South Africa and generally during the late summer (January to March) when the influence of tropical weather systems becomes dominant. Research into forecasting techniques best suited for tropical weather systems over southern Africa has been neglected since the early 1970's. The aim of this research was to develop a Model for the Identification of Tropical Weather Systems (MITS) as well as a Tropical Heavy Rainfall Identification System (THERIS) for operational use in the weather forecasting offices of Southern Africa. This study explains the dynamical properties of tropical weather systems and identifies those variables, which favour the development of heavy rainfall. Three case studies are presented to illustrate the dynamical properties of tropical weather systems. THERIS is tested and verified for historical heavy rainfall events over South Africa. The heavy rainfall events of February 2000 over the northern Provinces of South Africa are discussed and both THERIS and MITS are tested for operational functionality. Results indicate that MITS can be used to identify tropical weather systems and that THERIS determines areas of heavy rainfall. It is recommended that the two products be tested and used operationally.en
dc.description.availabilityunrestricteden
dc.description.departmentGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorologyen
dc.identifier.citationDyson, L.L. 2000, A dynamical forecasting perspective on synoptic scale weather systems over southern Africa, MSc dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd <http://hdl.handle.net/2263/23509>en
dc.identifier.otherH560/agen
dc.identifier.upetdurlhttp://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-03272006-153324/en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/23509
dc.language.isoEngen
dc.publisherUniversity of Pretoriaen_ZA
dc.rights© 2000, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria.en
dc.subjectSynoptic meteorology south africaen
dc.subjectWeather forecasting south africaen
dc.subjectUCTDen_US
dc.titleA dynamical forecasting perspective on synoptic scale weather systems over southern Africaen
dc.typeDissertationen

Files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Dyson_Dynamical_2000.pdf
Size:
2.28 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Dissertation