A dynamical forecasting perspective on synoptic scale weather systems over southern Africa

Loading...
Thumbnail Image

Date

Authors

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

University of Pretoria

Abstract

Heavy rainfall and flooding often occur over South Africa. A high percentage of the heavy rainfall events occur over the eastern interior of South Africa and generally during the late summer (January to March) when the influence of tropical weather systems becomes dominant. Research into forecasting techniques best suited for tropical weather systems over southern Africa has been neglected since the early 1970's. The aim of this research was to develop a Model for the Identification of Tropical Weather Systems (MITS) as well as a Tropical Heavy Rainfall Identification System (THERIS) for operational use in the weather forecasting offices of Southern Africa. This study explains the dynamical properties of tropical weather systems and identifies those variables, which favour the development of heavy rainfall. Three case studies are presented to illustrate the dynamical properties of tropical weather systems. THERIS is tested and verified for historical heavy rainfall events over South Africa. The heavy rainfall events of February 2000 over the northern Provinces of South Africa are discussed and both THERIS and MITS are tested for operational functionality. Results indicate that MITS can be used to identify tropical weather systems and that THERIS determines areas of heavy rainfall. It is recommended that the two products be tested and used operationally.

Description

Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2000.

Keywords

Synoptic meteorology south africa, Weather forecasting south africa, UCTD

Sustainable Development Goals

Citation

Dyson, L.L. 2000, A dynamical forecasting perspective on synoptic scale weather systems over southern Africa, MSc dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd <http://hdl.handle.net/2263/23509>