Technology diffusion and forecasting : the case of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for simulation of greenhouse internal environments

Abstract

Forecasting emerging technologies as well as rate of diffusion of resultant products are complex in the context of management of technology usually because of a lack of relevant data. Techniques such as bibliometric analysis and the Bass diffusion model are utilized in this paper to assess the growth rate and market penetration of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) as a technology. The penetration and growth rate of user acceptance to two CFD codes (not identified) are simulated. Furthermore a technology forecasting model of research and innovation in the field of application of CFD in the assessment of greenhouses is presented. Some CFD results of simulations for internal and external flow in an eight span greenhouse are presented as illustration of the power of CFD as technology.