Climate change impacts on the nexus between water, energy and food resources : the cases of Narok County in Kenya and Vhembe District Municipality, in South Africa

Abstract

The current and predicted increase in global demand for the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) resources as well as the inherent links between the WEF sectors and sustainable development, the WEF nexus is rapidly being recognized as a method to manage sustainable development effectively. Many African countries still have demand and accessibility challenges to WEF resources. For this reason, a comparative study of two different sites (Narok County and Vhembe District Municipality), yet exhibiting similar socio-economic, environmental and technological circumstances was undertaken. In the present study, we considered 218 questionnaire responses, which we analyzed using the partial least squares - Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) based on the WEF nexus constructs. Two hypotheses were formulated: 1) Null Hypothesis (H0) – No interdependencies exist between the state of climate and the WEF resources, 2) Alternative Hypothesis (Ha) – Interdependencies exist between the state of climate and WEF resources. Results show that the alternative hypothesis (Ha) is true, demonstrated by the descriptive statistics indicating p-values < 0.05 for both the t-test and the Bartlet test. Furthermore, results from the multi-regression model based on data from both sites showed p-values < 0.05 and higher adjusted r-squared values, suggesting a better fit. The communities in both study sites agree that the regions have experienced a scarcity of WEF resources due to climate change. The results show that climate change is an intrinsic part of developmental options for the sustainable livelihood of both study sites in line with the 2030 UN agenda on sustainable development goals targets. The results illustrate that both study sites share similar socio-economic and environmental challenges. Moreover, future changes in rainfall and temperature projections indicated that constraints in the scarcity of WEF resources will be exacerbated and this will increase the vulnerability in both study sites. Thus, sustainable management of natural resources that is people and planet centric is crucial to climate change adaptation and mitigation, social justice, equity, and inclusion. The SEM results showed with significant confidence that the water, energy and food sectors are closely interconnected, and the impact on climate and sustainability is significantly different. Food has a direct positive impact on climate and sustainability, while both water and energy have an indirect negative impact. Moreover, for all the relationships explored, climate indicated a significant direct link to sustainability. Since in most underdeveloped countries, sustainable development and societal well-being heavily rely on goods and services derived from the natural resources and the environment, this study contributes to the nexus modeling research field by introducing SEM as an innovative methodology over a single equation modeling framework in analyzing variables that have complex interrelationships and facilitates advanced WEF Nexus resource governance. Moreover, this study explored alternative options for community resilience to climate change