Modeling sustainable earned value management (EVM) under grey uncertain conditions

Abstract

The EVM method is an essential project management technique that compares the work done to the planned values (PVs) to identify project variances. However, the inherent uncertainties and possibilities in the project introduce uncertainty in the input data. Despite this importance, the input data for this method is often considered deterministic in most research, and several researchers have modeled it under fuzzy information. In this research, we developed a novel approach using a combined model of fuzzy numbers and grey numbers called interval grey triangular fuzzy (IGTF) numbers. This model is designed to manage the project’s fuzzy grey value, addressing the two pillars of fuzzy and grey uncertainty. The findings of the study indicate that by combining the grey degree of confidence with the triangular fuzzy number (TFN), the results are closer to the real world and more lenient. Finally, based on the estimation of the actual final cost of the project, managers are encouraged to use certainty in lowering costs concerning the value obtained by using the Z-number for the phases of the project. This research provides practical insights and a new model for managing sustainable project uncertainties using fuzzy and grey theories, offering a potential solution to this challenge.