Abstract:
This academic inquiry delves into the intricate dynamics of organisational performance evaluations, challenging conventional assumptions by exploring the interplay between strategic skill and stochastic fortune. Focused on a global sample of 2,029 companies over a 16-year period, the research draws insights provided by Henderson, Raynor, and Ahmed (2012) to navigate the complex landscape of organisational success, shedding light on the elusive intersection of strategic intent and serendipity. Utilising advanced statistical techniques, including Decile Transition Matrices and Markov Chain simulations, this inquiry seeks to discriminate between periods of performance attributable to strategic prowess from such period that may simply have resulted from fortuitous circumstances. In doing so, truly exceptional organisations are distinguished from those that may simply have benefited from luck. This research plays a crucial role in advancing the comprehension of the interplay between luck and skill in organisational performance assessments. It provides valuable insights to empower scholars and practitioners in accurately discerning truly exceptional organisations, whether for case studies or strategic emulation. The study serves as an indispensable guide, underscoring the importance of acknowledging the potential influence of luck in periods of superior performance and cautioning against overlooking randomness in performance evaluations.
