Just energy transition of South Africa in a post-COVID era

Abstract

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have sparked global debate over how green economic recovery may and should be, and if the pandemic has accelerated the present energy transition while assuring a just transition for vulnerable populations such as unskilled workers and women. This study investigates the socioeconomic impact of South Africa’s planned green energy transition, with a focus on the Mpumalanga province—the country’s largest coal mining region with many coal-fired power plants. Using a regional-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the study analyses the economy-wide effects of different policy scenarios related to a changing electricity generation mix, investment financing costs, and international action against non-compliant industries, amongst others, with a specific focus on the vulnerable industries and population groups in Mpumalanga. Key results from the study highlights that (1) the structure of the Mpumalanga economy will be affected in the medium to long run regardless of the domestic transition path, (2) the Mpumalanga economy is indeed in danger of shrinking relative to the baseline, unless the Just Energy Transition (JET) is quickly and carefully managed, and (3) at a national level, at least, there is the strong possibility of a double dividend when greening the South African economy with overall economic growth and environmental outcomes expected to improve in the long run.