JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
Please be advised that the site will be down for maintenance on Sunday, September 1, 2024, from 08:00 to 18:00, and again on Monday, September 2, 2024, from 08:00 to 09:00. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
El Niño, La Niña, and the forecastability of the realized variance of heating oil price movements
Balcilar, Mehmet; Bouri, Elie; Gupta, Rangan; Pierdzioch, Christian
We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.