The financial US uncertainty spillover multiplier : evidence from a GVAR model

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Authors

Salisu, Afees A.
Gupta, Rangan
Demirer, Riza

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Publisher

Wiley

Abstract

This study examines the role of the global financial cycle (GFCy) in the propagation of uncertainty shocks from the United States to other national economies using a large-scale global vector autoregressive model of 33 countries. Although the dominant role of US uncertainty over global economic dynamics is established, the findings highlight the moderating role of the GFCy in the spillover effects of uncertainty shocks. The US uncertainty shocks, compared with own-domestic uncertainty shocks, are found to have a more prominent negative impact on output during stressed market conditions, implied by low values of the GFCy, while the impact turns largely insignificant during high GFCy states. The findings provide evidence in favour of a US uncertainty spillover multiplier, suggesting that the design of monetary policy as a response to US uncertainty needs to be contingent on the state of the integrated global financial markets, captured by the GFCy.

Description

The data that support the findings of this study are available at : http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/peoplefiles/emeritus/mhp1/GVAR/GVAR.html for the GVAR database and http://policyuncertainty.com/wui_quarterly.html for Economic policy uncertainty.

Keywords

Global financial cycle (GFCy), Global vector autoregressive model, Real GDP, Gross domestic product (GDP), Uncertainty shocks

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Citation

Salisu, A. A., Gupta, R., & Demirer, R. (2022). The financial US uncertainty spillover multiplier: Evidence from a GVAR model. International Finance, 25(3) : 313-340. https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12414.