A note on the COVID-19 shock and real GDP in emerging economies

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Authors

Salisu, Afees A.
Adediran, Idris A.
Gupta, Rangan

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Routledge

Abstract

In this study, we estimate a multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive (TGVAR) model to analyze the response of real GDP of emerging economies (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) with reference to selected advanced economies (US, UK, & Germany) to the COVID-19 shock. The result of the counterfactual analysis beyond the 2019Q4 indicates that the impact of COVID-19 shock on real GDP is pervasive and more prevalent in the developed than the emerging economies. Our model forecasts real GDP growth of emerging countries more precisely, but we attribute the shortfalls in the projections for advanced economies to the efficacy of fiscal and unconventional monetary policies to speed up the recovery in these countries.

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Keywords

Real GDP, Gross domestic product (GDP), COVID-19 pandemic, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Threshold-augmented global vector autoregressive (TGVAR), Emerging economies, United States (US)

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Citation

Afees A. Salisu, Idris A. Adediran & Rangan Gupta (2022) A Note on the COVID-19 Shock and Real GDP in Emerging Economies, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58:1, 93-101, DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2021.1981854.