A note on the COVID-19 shock and real GDP in emerging economies

dc.contributor.authorSalisu, Afees A.
dc.contributor.authorAdediran, Idris A.
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rangan
dc.contributor.emailrangan.gupta@up.ac.zaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-11T05:54:23Z
dc.date.available2022-03-11T05:54:23Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractIn this study, we estimate a multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive (TGVAR) model to analyze the response of real GDP of emerging economies (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) with reference to selected advanced economies (US, UK, & Germany) to the COVID-19 shock. The result of the counterfactual analysis beyond the 2019Q4 indicates that the impact of COVID-19 shock on real GDP is pervasive and more prevalent in the developed than the emerging economies. Our model forecasts real GDP growth of emerging countries more precisely, but we attribute the shortfalls in the projections for advanced economies to the efficacy of fiscal and unconventional monetary policies to speed up the recovery in these countries.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentEconomicsen_ZA
dc.description.librarianhj2022en_ZA
dc.description.urihttps://www.tandfonline.com/loi/mree20en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationAfees A. Salisu, Idris A. Adediran & Rangan Gupta (2022) A Note on the COVID-19 Shock and Real GDP in Emerging Economies, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58:1, 93-101, DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2021.1981854.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1540-496X (print)
dc.identifier.issn1558-0938 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1080/1540496X.2021.1981854
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/84438
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherRoutledgeen_ZA
dc.rights© 2021 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. This is an electronic version of an article published in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 93-101, 2022. doi : 10.1080/1540496X.2021.1981854. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade is available online at : http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/mree20.en_ZA
dc.subjectReal GDPen_ZA
dc.subjectGross domestic product (GDP)en_ZA
dc.subjectCOVID-19 pandemicen_ZA
dc.subjectCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)en_ZA
dc.subjectThreshold-augmented global vector autoregressive (TGVAR)en_ZA
dc.subjectEmerging economiesen_ZA
dc.subjectUnited States (US)en_ZA
dc.titleA note on the COVID-19 shock and real GDP in emerging economiesen_ZA
dc.typePreprint Articleen_ZA

Files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Salisu_Note_2021.pdf
Size:
566.03 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Preprint Article

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.75 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description: