Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

Show simple item record Iboi, Enahoro A. Sharomi, Oluwaseun Ngonghala, Calistus N. Gumel, Abba B. 2021-06-18T13:41:54Z 2021-06-18T13:41:54Z 2020-10-22
dc.description.abstract A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in some jurisdictions within Nigeria (notably the states of Kano and Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja). Numerical simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-distancing strategy in the jurisdictions and in the entire nation. Although the use of face masks in public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use, as a sole intervention strategy, may fail to lead to a substantial reduction in disease burden. Such substantial reduction is feasible in the jurisdictions (and the entire Nigerian nation) if the public face mask use strategy is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The community lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an e ort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic. en_ZA
dc.description.department Mathematics and Applied Mathematics en_ZA
dc.description.librarian am2021 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship The Simons Foundation and the National Science Foundation. en_ZA
dc.description.uri en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Iboi, E.A., Sharomi, O., Ngonghala, C.N. et al. 2020, 'Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria', Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 17, no. 6, pp. 7192–7220. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 1547-1063 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1551-0018 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.3934/mbe.2020369
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher AIMS Press en_ZA
dc.rights AIMS Press en_ZA
dc.subject Social-distancing en_ZA
dc.subject Lockdown en_ZA
dc.subject COVID-19 pandemic en_ZA
dc.subject Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) en_ZA
dc.subject Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) en_ZA
dc.subject Non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) en_ZA
dc.subject Mathematical modeling and analysis en_ZA
dc.subject Nigeria en_ZA
dc.title Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria en_ZA
dc.type Article en_ZA

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