Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

dc.contributor.authorIboi, Enahoro A.
dc.contributor.authorSharomi, Oluwaseun
dc.contributor.authorNgonghala, Calistus N.
dc.contributor.authorGumel, Abba B.
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-18T13:41:54Z
dc.date.available2021-06-18T13:41:54Z
dc.date.issued2020-10-22
dc.description.abstractA mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in some jurisdictions within Nigeria (notably the states of Kano and Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja). Numerical simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-distancing strategy in the jurisdictions and in the entire nation. Although the use of face masks in public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use, as a sole intervention strategy, may fail to lead to a substantial reduction in disease burden. Such substantial reduction is feasible in the jurisdictions (and the entire Nigerian nation) if the public face mask use strategy is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The community lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an e ort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentMathematics and Applied Mathematicsen_ZA
dc.description.librarianam2021en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorshipThe Simons Foundation and the National Science Foundation.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://www.aimspress.com/journal/MBEen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationIboi, E.A., Sharomi, O., Ngonghala, C.N. et al. 2020, 'Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria', Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 17, no. 6, pp. 7192–7220.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1547-1063 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1551-0018 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.3934/mbe.2020369
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/80378
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherAIMS Pressen_ZA
dc.rightsAIMS Pressen_ZA
dc.subjectSocial-distancingen_ZA
dc.subjectLockdownen_ZA
dc.subjectCOVID-19 pandemicen_ZA
dc.subjectCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)en_ZA
dc.subjectSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)en_ZA
dc.subjectNon-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI)en_ZA
dc.subjectMathematical modeling and analysisen_ZA
dc.subjectNigeriaen_ZA
dc.titleMathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeriaen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA

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