Abstract:
A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and
control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using
COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess
the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in some jurisdictions within
Nigeria (notably the states of Kano and Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja). Numerical
simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using
moderate levels of social-distancing strategy in the jurisdictions and in the entire nation. Although the
use of face masks in public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use, as a sole intervention
strategy, may fail to lead to a substantial reduction in disease burden. Such substantial reduction is
feasible in the jurisdictions (and the entire Nigerian nation) if the public face mask use strategy is
complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The community lockdown measures implemented
in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the
effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown
measures sooner, in an e ort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave
of the pandemic.
