Forecast skill of minimum and maximum temperatures on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales over South Africa

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dc.contributor.author Phakula, Steven
dc.contributor.author Landman, W.A. (Willem Adolf), 1964-
dc.contributor.author Engelbrecht, Christien J.
dc.contributor.author Makgoale, Thabo
dc.date.accessioned 2020-10-14T10:33:02Z
dc.date.available 2020-10-14T10:33:02Z
dc.date.issued 2020-02
dc.description.abstract Forecast skill of three subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models and their ensemble mean outputs are evaluated in predicting the surface minimum and maximum temperatures at subseasonal timescales over South Africa. Three skill scores (correlation of anomaly, root‐mean‐square error, and Taylor diagrams) are used to evaluate the models. It is established that the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models considered here have skill in predicting both minimum and maximum temperatures at subseasonal timescales. The correlation of anomaly indicates that the multimodel ensemble outperforms the individual models in predicting both minimum and maximum temperatures for the day 1–14, day 11–30, and full calendar month timescales during December months. The Taylor diagrams suggest that the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model and MM performs better for the day 11–30 timescale for both minimum and maximum temperatures. In general, the models perform better for minimum than maximum temperatures in terms of root‐mean‐square error. In fact, the skill difference in terms of correlation of anomalies (CORA) is small. en_ZA
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_ZA
dc.description.librarian pm2020 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship NRF Access en_ZA
dc.description.uri https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/23335084 en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Phakula, S., Landman, W.A., Engelbrecht, C.J. & Thabo Makgoale. T. 2020, 'Forecast skill of minimum and maximum temperatures on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales over South Africa', Earth and Space Science, vol. 7, no. 2, e2019EA000697, pp. 1-11. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 2333-5084 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1029/2019EA000697
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/76458
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Wiley Open Access en_ZA
dc.rights © 2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. en_ZA
dc.subject Subseasonal forecast skill en_ZA
dc.subject Temperature en_ZA
dc.subject Southern Africa en_ZA
dc.title Forecast skill of minimum and maximum temperatures on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales over South Africa en_ZA
dc.type Article en_ZA


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