Forecast skill of minimum and maximum temperatures on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales over South Africa

dc.contributor.authorPhakula, Steven
dc.contributor.authorLandman, Willem Adolf
dc.contributor.authorEngelbrecht, Christina Johanna
dc.contributor.authorMakgoale, Thabo
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-14T10:33:02Z
dc.date.available2020-10-14T10:33:02Z
dc.date.issued2020-02
dc.description.abstractForecast skill of three subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models and their ensemble mean outputs are evaluated in predicting the surface minimum and maximum temperatures at subseasonal timescales over South Africa. Three skill scores (correlation of anomaly, root‐mean‐square error, and Taylor diagrams) are used to evaluate the models. It is established that the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models considered here have skill in predicting both minimum and maximum temperatures at subseasonal timescales. The correlation of anomaly indicates that the multimodel ensemble outperforms the individual models in predicting both minimum and maximum temperatures for the day 1–14, day 11–30, and full calendar month timescales during December months. The Taylor diagrams suggest that the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model and MM performs better for the day 11–30 timescale for both minimum and maximum temperatures. In general, the models perform better for minimum than maximum temperatures in terms of root‐mean‐square error. In fact, the skill difference in terms of correlation of anomalies (CORA) is small.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorologyen_ZA
dc.description.librarianpm2020en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorshipNRF Accessen_ZA
dc.description.urihttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/23335084en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationPhakula, S., Landman, W.A., Engelbrecht, C.J. & Thabo Makgoale. T. 2020, 'Forecast skill of minimum and maximum temperatures on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales over South Africa', Earth and Space Science, vol. 7, no. 2, e2019EA000697, pp. 1-11.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn2333-5084 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1029/2019EA000697
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/76458
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherWiley Open Accessen_ZA
dc.rights© 2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.en_ZA
dc.subjectSubseasonal forecast skillen_ZA
dc.subjectTemperatureen_ZA
dc.subjectSouthern Africaen_ZA
dc.titleForecast skill of minimum and maximum temperatures on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales over South Africaen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA

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