Abstract:
November months are notorious for severe weather over the Highveld of South Africa. November 2016 was no exception and
a large number of severe events occurred. Very heavy rainfall, large hail and tornadoes were reported. The aim of this paper
is to compare the synoptic circulation of November 2016 with the long-term mean November circulation and to investigate
some sounding derived parameters. Furthermore, a few of the severe weather events are described in detail. The surface
temperatures and dewpoint temperatures were found to be higher than normal resulting in increased conditional instability
over the Highveld. Low-level moisture originated over the warm Mozambique Channel and the 500 hPa temperature trough
was located favourably over the Highveld; further east than normal. The combination of these factors and weak steering
winds resulted in flash flooding on the 9th while favourable wind shear conditions caused the development of a tornado on
15 November. The favourable circulation patterns and moisture gave rise to an atmosphere in which severe weather was
a possibility, and the awareness of such factors is used as one of many tools when considering the severe weather forecast.
The consideration of the daily variables derived from sounding data were good precursors for the prediction of severe
thunderstorm development over the Highveld during November 2016. It is recommended that an operational meteorologist
incorporates upper air sounding data into the forecasting process and not to rely on numerical prediction models exclusively.
