Using Monte Carlo simulation to create a ranked check list of risks in a portfolio of railway construction projects

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dc.contributor.author Joubert, F.J. (Francois)
dc.contributor.author Pretorius, Leon
dc.date.accessioned 2017-11-03T10:50:31Z
dc.date.available 2017-11-03T10:50:31Z
dc.date.issued 2017-08-31
dc.description.abstract When introducing quantified risk assessments at a South African state-owned freight company, a skills gap was found during the identification and quantified risk analysis. To help with risk identification, a checklist of risks for railway construction projects was developed. The basis of this checklist was 38 individual railway construction project risk registers that were collated into a single risk register. After the risks had been cleaned up and classified, a Monte Carlo simulation using @Risk software was done that produced a ranked check list of risks. This list of risks is valuable because subject matter experts developed it, and can be used as a risk identification checklist by stakeholders in similar projects. The simulation results also showed that project scope is an influencing factor on the ranking of risks. en_ZA
dc.description.abstract Tydens die bekendstelling van gekwantifiseerde risikowaardebepalings by ’n Suid-Afrikaanse vervoermaatskappy in staatsbesit, is daar ’n tekort aan vaardighede gevind tydens risiko-identifisering en ‘n gekwantifiseerde risiko-analise. Om hierdie probleem te beredder, is ’n lys van spoorbaankonstruksie risikos ontwikkel. Die basis van hierdie lys was 38 individuele spoorbaankonstruksie projek risiko registers wat opgeneem is in ’n enkele risiko register. Na afloop hiervan is die risiko register skoongemaak, geklassifiseer, en ’n Monte Carlo-simulasie met behulp @Risk sagteware gedoen wat ’n ranglys van risikos geproduseer het. Hierdie ranglys wys dat die projek omvang ’n invloed het op die posisie van risikos in die ranglys. en_ZA
dc.description.department Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM) en_ZA
dc.description.librarian am2017 en_ZA
dc.description.uri http://sajie.journals.ac.za/pub en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Joubert, F.J. & Pretorius, L. 2017, 'Using Monte Carlo simulation to create a ranked check list of risks in a portfolio of railway construction projects', South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 133-147. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 1012-277X (print)
dc.identifier.issn 2224-7890 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.7166/28-2-1604
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/63014
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Southern African Institute for Industrial Engineering en_ZA
dc.rights Southern African Institute for Industrial Engineering. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. en_ZA
dc.subject Quantified risk assessments en_ZA
dc.subject Risk analysis en_ZA
dc.subject @Risk software en_ZA
dc.subject Monte Carlo simulation en_ZA
dc.subject Gekwantifiseerde risikowaardebepalings en_ZA
dc.subject Risiko-analise en_ZA
dc.subject @Risk sagteware en_ZA
dc.subject Monte Carlo-simulasie en_ZA
dc.title Using Monte Carlo simulation to create a ranked check list of risks in a portfolio of railway construction projects en_ZA
dc.type Article en_ZA


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