Analysis of policy options for projects in the electricity sector in sub-Saharan Africa : a system dynamics approach

Abstract

Many projects in the electricity energy sector in Africa’s sub-Saharan region experience delays and challenges to quality, leading to frequent power outages that slow overall economic activity and frustrate investor confidence in the region. This paper presents the systemic methods employed to evaluate the dynamic consequences of policies in electricity energy sector projects in the region. The model uses the Vensim software to carry out the simulations. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided and analysed, and the paper compares and contrasts these different scenarios. The results show that there is merit in improving project management competence in the region. A shortage of commissioning engineers also emerged as a major problem in the projects, leading to multi-tasking as the few existing commissioning engineers move from one project to another. To address this weakness, the study proposes that contracting firms be compelled to employ a higher proportion of commissioning engineers.

Baie projekte in die elektrisiteit energiesektor in die sub-Sahara-Afrika streek ervaar kwaliteit uitdagings en vertragings, wat lei tot gereelde kragonderbrekings. Dit verlangsaam die algehele ekonomiese aktiwiteit en frustreer beleggersvertroue in die streek. Hierdie artikel bied die sistemiese metodes wat gebruik is om die dinamiese gevolge van beleid in die elektrisiteit energiesektor projekte in die streek te evalueer. Die model maak gebruik van die Vensim sagteware om die simulasies uit te voer. ’n Verskeidenheid van illustratiewe scenario’s word aangebied en ontleed, en die verskillende scenario’s word vergelyk en kontrasteer. Die resultate wys dat daar meriete is in die verbetering van projekbestuur kundigheid in die streek. Die tekort aan ingenieurs wat die projekte kan uitvoer, is ook uitgewys as ‘n groot problem, waar die van die ingenieurs verwag word om met ‘n multi-taak benadering tussen die projekte te beweeg. Om dit te adresseer, word daar voorgestel dat die kontrakteurs ‘n groter hoeveelheid van die ingenieurs moet indiens neem.