dc.contributor.author |
Chisadza, Carolyn
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Dlamini, Janneke
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Gupta, Rangan
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Modise, Mampho P.
|
|
dc.date.accessioned |
2016-10-13T08:14:50Z |
|
dc.date.issued |
2016-08 |
|
dc.description.abstract |
The recent increases in oil prices have raised the importance of studying the effects
of oil supply and demand shocks on an economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the
impact of the oil supply and demand shocks on the South African economy using a sign
restriction-based structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Our results show that an oil
supply shock has a short-lived significant impact only on the inflation rate, while the impact on
the other variables is statistically insignificant. Supply disruptions result in a short-term increase
in the domestic inflation rate with no reaction from the monetary policy. An aggregate demand
shock results in short- to medium-term improvements in domestic output and the real exchange
rate. The effect is statistically insignificant for the inflation rate as well as the monetary policy
instrument. The inflation rate and the real exchange rate react negatively to an oil-specific
demand shock, while output is positively related to unanticipated changes in oil price due to
speculations. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the source of the oil price
movements, since an oil price increase necessarily does not imply a negative effect on the
economy. |
en_ZA |
dc.description.department |
Economics |
en_ZA |
dc.description.embargo |
2017-08-31 |
|
dc.description.librarian |
hb2016 |
en_ZA |
dc.description.uri |
http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/uesb20 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.citation |
Carolyn Chisadza, Janneke Dlamini, Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise (2016) The impact of oil shocks on the South African economy, Energy Sources, Part B:Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11:8, 739-745, DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2013.781248. |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.issn |
1556-7249 (print) |
|
dc.identifier.issn |
1556-7257 (online) |
|
dc.identifier.other |
10.1080/15567249.2013.781248 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/2263/57142 |
|
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_ZA |
dc.publisher |
Taylor and Francis |
en_ZA |
dc.rights |
© 2016 Taylor and Francis. This is an electronic version of an article published in Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, vol. 11, no. 8, pp. 739-745, 2016. doi : 10.1080/15567249.2013.781248. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy is available online at : http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/uesb20. |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Macroeconomic variables |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Monetary policy |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Oil price shocks |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
Vector autoregressive (VAR) model |
en_ZA |
dc.subject |
South African economy |
en_ZA |
dc.title |
The impact of oil shocks on the South African economy |
en_ZA |
dc.type |
Postprint Article |
en_ZA |