Uncertainty and crude oil returns
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Date
Authors
Aloui, Riadh
Gupta, Rangan
Miller, Stephen M.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
We use a copula approach to investigate the effect of uncertainty on crude-oil returns. Using copulas to construct multivariate distributions of time-series data permit the calculation of the dependence structure between the series independently of the marginal distributions. Further, we implement the copula estimation using a rolling window method to allow for a time-varying effect of equity and economic policy uncertainty on oil returns. The results show that higher uncertainty, as measured by equity and economic policy uncertainty indices, significantly increase crude-oil returns only during certain periods of time. That is, we find a positive dependence prior to the financial crisis and Great Recession. Interestingly, estimation of the copula over the entire sample period leads to a negative dependence between the equity and economic policy indices and the crude-oil return.
Description
Keywords
Uncertainty, Oil shocks, Copulas
Sustainable Development Goals
Citation
Aloui, R, Gupta, R & Miller, SM 2016, 'Uncertainty and crude oil returns', Energy Economics, vol. 55, pp. 92-100.