Uncertainty and crude oil returns

dc.contributor.authorAloui, Riadh
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rangan
dc.contributor.authorMiller, Stephen M.
dc.contributor.emailrangan.gupta@up.ac.zaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2016-06-08T06:49:48Z
dc.date.issued2016-03
dc.description.abstractWe use a copula approach to investigate the effect of uncertainty on crude-oil returns. Using copulas to construct multivariate distributions of time-series data permit the calculation of the dependence structure between the series independently of the marginal distributions. Further, we implement the copula estimation using a rolling window method to allow for a time-varying effect of equity and economic policy uncertainty on oil returns. The results show that higher uncertainty, as measured by equity and economic policy uncertainty indices, significantly increase crude-oil returns only during certain periods of time. That is, we find a positive dependence prior to the financial crisis and Great Recession. Interestingly, estimation of the copula over the entire sample period leads to a negative dependence between the equity and economic policy indices and the crude-oil return.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentEconomicsen_ZA
dc.description.embargo2017-03-31
dc.description.librarianhb2016en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/enecoen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationAloui, R, Gupta, R & Miller, SM 2016, 'Uncertainty and crude oil returns', Energy Economics, vol. 55, pp. 92-100.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0140-9883 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1873-6181 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.eneco.2016.01.012
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/52903
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherElsevieren_ZA
dc.rights© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Economics, vol. 55, pp. 92-100, 2016.en_ZA
dc.subjectUncertaintyen_ZA
dc.subjectOil shocksen_ZA
dc.subjectCopulasen_ZA
dc.titleUncertainty and crude oil returnsen_ZA
dc.typePostprint Articleen_ZA

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