A system dynamics approach to technology sustainability assessment : the case of biodiesel developments in South Africa

Abstract

This paper suggests that a system dynamics approach is best suited to assess the sustainability of technologies, with a specific emphasis on policy interventions for renewable energy in the African context. A bioenergy technology sustainability assessment (BIOTSA) model is subsequently demonstrated by analysing the outcomes of a proposed biodiesel production development on selected sustainability indicators for the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. In addition, some scenarios are tested to compare how they may improve the selected indicators. The BIOTSA model results are useful to compare dynamic consequences that may result from the proposed biodiesel production development and the respective policies and decisions that may arise from such a development. Nevertheless, recommendations are made to improve the usefulness and practicability of this type of model for technology assessment purposes.