Abstract:
The wind energy sector is one of the most prominent
sectors of the renewable energy industry.
However, its dependence on meteorological factors
subjects it to climate change. Studies analysing the
impact of climate change on wind resources usually
only model changes in wind speed. Two elements
that have to be calculated in addition to wind speed
changes are Annual Energy Production (AEP) and
Power Density (PD). This is not only because of the
inherent variability between wind speed and wind
power generated, but also because of the relative
magnitudes of change in energy potentially generated
at different areas under varied wind climates. In
this study, it was assumed that two separate locations
would experience a 10% wind speed increase
after McInnes et al. (2010). Given the two locations’
different wind speed distributions, a wind speed
increase equal in magnitude is not equivalent to
similar magnitudes of change in potential energy
production in these areas. This paper demonstrates
this fact for each of the case studies. It is of general
interest to the energy field and is of value since very
little literature exists in the Southern African context on climate change- or variability-effects on the
(wind) energy sector. Energy output is therefore
dependent not only on wind speed, but also wind
turbine characteristics. The importance of including
wind power curves and wind turbine generator
capacity in wind resource analysis is emphasised.
