Evaluating the ability of decision-makers to estimate risks effectively in industrial applications

Abstract

There are many factors to be considered in risk management that influence the effective control of risk either beneficially or detrimentally. An improvement in the quality of risk analysis will enable risk managers and decision-makers to make more accurate decisions that would benefit all stakeholders. The aim of this research was to determine the effectiveness of the most commonly employed risk analysis methods. Two decision problems and two hypothetical risk analysis problems were presented to groups of respondents who were asked to choose a correct answer from the given options. The results showed no significant association between a person’s age or experience and their choice or decision about risk management. The only association was found between a higher level of professional qualification and the correct choice, when a decision problem was given without providing a decision tree.

Verskeie faktore moet in ag geneem word in risikobestuur wat die effektiewe beheer van risikos voordelig of nadelig beïnvloed. ’n Verbetering in die kwaliteit van risiko analise kan risikobestuurders en besluitnemers help om meer akkurate besluite te neem tot voordeel van alle belanghebbers. Die doel van hierdie studie was om die effektiwiteit van die mees algemene risiko bepaling metodes te evalueer. Twee besluitnemingsprobleme en twee risiko-analise probleme is vir groepe respondente voorgehou, en respondente is versoek om ’n korrekte keuse te maak uit ’n lys moontlike oplossings. Die resultate toon dat ouderdom of ervaring nie ’n betekenisvolle invloed op ’n effektiewe besluit of keuse met betrekking tot risikobestuur het nie. ’n Betekenisvolle assosiasie is wel waargeneem tussen ’n hoër vlak van professionele kwalifikasie en die korrekte keuse, wanneer ’n besluitnemingsprobleem sonder dat ’n besluitboom verskaf is.