Based on the axiomatic framework of Choquet decision theory, we develop a
closed-form model of Bayesian learning with ambiguous beliefs about the mean
of a normal distribution. In contrast to rational models of Bayesian ...
This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs
(SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age-dependent inverse ...
Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities re ecting likelihood in-
sensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian
learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational ...
On average, “young” people underestimate whereas “old” people overestimate their chances to survive into the future. Such subjective survival beliefs violate the rational expectations paradigm and are also not in line with ...
