Gül, SelçukGupta, Rangan2022-03-112022-03-112021-10Gül, S. & Gupta, R. (2021) Time-varying impact of global, region-, and country-specific uncertainties on the volatility of international trade. Contemporary Economic Policy, 39: 691–700. https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12517.1074-3529 (print)1465-7287 (online)10.1111/coep.12517http://hdl.handle.net/2263/84437We use a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to decompose the variance of exports and imports over time for 22 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries spanning the quarterly period of 1960:01–2016:04 into contributions from country- and region-specific uncertainties and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that, while idiosyncratic uncertainty has a dominant role in explaining the volatility of international trade, global, country-, and region-specific uncertainties drive around 40% of the volatility of real exports and imports, with the impact of the latter three uncertainties rising in explanatory power during episodes of crises. Our results have important policy implications.en© 2021 Western Economic Association International.. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article : Time-varying impact of global, region-, and country-specific uncertainties on the volatility of international trade. Contemporary Economic Policy, 39: 691–700, 2021, doi : 10.1111/coep.12517. The definite version is available at : http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/coep.Global financial crisis (GFC)Vector autoregressive (VAR)Dynamic factor modelStochastic volatilityTime-varying parameter (TVP)Trade volatilityUncertainty shocksPreprint Article